4.27 PM Zones: Warmer air arrives late week
Cold and dreary weather had, for the most part, taken control of the areas weather over the past several days. Much of this can be blamed on the development of an upper level low over the Southeast United States last week. This upper level low drifted northeastwards towards the Mid Atlantic coast earlier this week, aiding in the development of a low pressure system which enhanced precipitation across much of the area.
The slow-moving cutoff low, which refers to systems that are detached from the overall jet stream, meandered in the region through this morning while slowly drifting off to the north and east. Residual moisture allowed for fog and drizzle to remain in the area. The good news is that, at long last, the system is departing and pleasant weather will finally return to the forecast.
Temperatures will rise into the lower 80’s in some areas by Friday afternoon.
A return/southwesterly flow will develop in the atmosphere’s mid levels later today, allowing warmer air to finally make its move from the Central United States towards the Northeast. Even this afternoon, high temperatures will be noticeably warmer than those of days past, reaching into the upper 60’s and lower 70’s throughout the region — with the lone exception being areas along the eastern shores.
The warming trend is expected to continue into Friday as heights rise in the atmosphere’s mid and upper levels. Warmer air from our south and west will continue to surge into the region, allowing high temperatures on Friday to reach from the upper 70’s to lower 80’s in many parts of the area. These are solidly above averages for this time of year. The same will likely be true on Saturday, with high temperatures reaching into the lower 80’s across an even larger area.
On both days, particularly Saturday, the potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms will exist during the afternoon hours. During the latter, the potential exists for a few stronger thunderstorms capable of heavy rain, lightning and gusty winds. But uncertainties with the positioning of frontal boundaries leads to a very low confidence forecast, even just a few days before the potential storms. We’ll be continually monitoring the threat and will provide more details on the particulars of the thunderstorm threat as we draw closer.
A few thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon, but the threat is expected to remain isolated and marginal overall.
Speaking of frontal boundaries, a backdoor cold front will put an end to the fun — er, warmth — on Sunday. A persistent feature so far this Spring, these backdoor fronts develop as the ocean and cooler maritime airmass to our north over New England battles the warmer air moving in from our South. This will lead to a chance of showers through Sunday morning, followed by cooler temperatures on Sunday afternoon — by 10 to 15 degrees in some areas!
The weather pattern into the week ahead looks to remain active, and warm air similar to what we are experiencing this weekend may be hard to come by. Forecast models have continually hinted at the development of high latitude blocking (we talk about this in winter a lot). This blocking in the high latitudes near Greenland forces cold air, usually situated up there, further south into Canada and the Northern 1/3 of the USA.
In other words, the warmth of this weekend doesn’t look to be returning with any consistency anytime soon. We suggest you do your best to go out and enjoy it. We’ll be doing the same!