Midday Zones Update: More Warmth Saturday, Cooler Sunday, More Unsettled Early Next Week

Happy Friday! Much warmer weather has returned today and will stick around until Saturday. Then a backdoor cold front will move through region, with a cooler temperatures returning again on Sunday. Another cold front moves through the region with more showers and thunderstorms possible late Monday and into early Tuesday of next week. Get details in latest forecast breakdown below!

Through Tonight

Temperatures will rise into upper 70s to lower 80s away from the coast, with partly to mostly sunny skies for rest of this afternoon.  Closer to coast, some sea-breezes will develop keep coastal areas cooler in upper 60s to middle 70s for highs. But this will much improved weather form earlier everywhere!

Low clouds and some patchy fog may develop again, this evening, especially closer to coast, with winds will be more south-southeasterly with more marine influence and low-level moisture increasing. More clouds may increase more convective debris from the west, moving into the region.

Also a weak mid-level disturbance enhance of lift and instability in the atmosphere for some isolated showers and thunderstorms, late tonight and early tomorrow morning.  Some localized heavy rainfall and frequent lightning is possible. But most of the night or many areas will be dry, with more mid-level ridging building into region. Clouds will keep temperatures will drop out of the the upper 50s or lower 60s overnight.

12z NAM showing isolated showers or thunderstorms late tonight and early tomorrow morning

NAM  model showing isolated showers or thunderstorms late tonight and early tomorrow morning

Saturday and Sunday

Mainly very warm and dry conditions are expected during the day on Saturday. A backdoor cold front will moving south through region during afternoon hours. Some convective debris or clouds will be moving through from time. This will keep sunshine more mixed with clouds during the day, especially from NYC north. High temperatures will likely be in upper 70s to lower 80s again over much of the region, with more west-southwest winds that may be gusting to around 30-35mph in the afternoon. But some areas that see more sunshine may reach the mid-upper 80s.

Some isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible tomorrow afternoon and evening, with backdoor cold front moving through the region. There may be enough instability and shear in the atmosphere for any thunderstorm to become strong or severe, especially over southern parts of the region. But stout mid-level capping and a lack of upper-level forcing is not expected to lead to any organized severe weather. It will turn cooler later Saturday night with winds become more northeasterly and temperatures dropping into the 50s.

On Sunday, a cooler maritime airmass will be over the region with more onshore winds, behind the cold front. Much of the day will likely feature some clouds and sunshine, as high pressure noses from the north. High temperatures are expected to be low to mid 60s. Then backdoor cold front will being return northward as warm front with more clouds and scattered showers possible Sunday night.

GFS model showing onshore winds with some clouds and scattered on Sunday afternoon.

GFS model showing onshore winds with some clouds and scattered on Sunday afternoon.

Monday and Tuesday

Still some uncertainty how far north a warm front will move through on Monday. Temperatures could get into 70s and 80s again, if the front lift further north. But a strong cold front, associated large deep low over moving over the Great Lakes will come through late Monday into early Tuesday. Large scale forcing and a sub-tropical plume of moisture out of the gulf of Mexico could result in some showers and thunderstorms with some heavy rainfall. But the cold front will be moving through the during overnight/morning hours, when instability is typically less. So no organized severe weather is anticipated for the region, at this time.

A cooler, drier airmass with more seasonable temperatures will likely come in behind this front for middle of next week. But high-latitude blocking near Greenland is expected to result in more cooler, wetter late next week. An large, deep amplifying trough may support larger storm system developing along the East Coast or a Nor’easter with some heavy rainfall and gusty winds. We had another big update on this potential storm with a premium article and video early this morning. Stay tuned for more updates on this systems through the weekend and next week! Hope you enjoy the weekend!