4.29 AM Zones: Morning storms depart, warm weather returns

If you were somehow able to sleep through the lightning, thunder and torrential rain this morning; well, more power to you. But for the majority of folks in our region, the strong thunderstorms which moved through the region in the pre-dawn hours were a rude wakeup call. The event was, nevertheless, quite impressive by overnight thunderstorm standards! A frontal boundary near the area helped to enhance lift for storms to develop as the moved through the area.

Even during the overnight hours, occasionally, these fronts can serve as highways for thunderstorms to travel. Elevated instability (slightly aloft in the atmosphere, instead of at the surface as it often is during the daytime) helped to maintain the storms development while favorable shear (50kts) aided in thunderstorm maintenance. All things considered, we were lucky this event didn’t come during the day; the presence of an elevated mixed layer would have nearly guaranteed a significant severe thunderstorm event if surface instability was more prevalent.

Regardless, the thunderstorms have moved off to the east this morning and will continue to shift seaward with the associated mid level disturbance. The frontal boundary associated with the storms has sunk southward over Central New Jersey this morning, which changes the forecast in a  few ways. Most notably, the very warm temperatures which were once projected in parts of Northeast NJ, NYC and Southeast NY are unlikely to occur, as the very warm air is shunted further south. Temperatures will still rise into the lower 80’s, but the upper 80’s will be confined to the mid atlantic.

High temperatures today will rise into the lower 80's in many areas.

High temperatures today will rise into the lower 80’s in many areas.

Secondly, the aforementioned front will linger in the region later today and may serve as a highway for additional convective debris. We use this term a lot — it refers to remnant, decaying thunderstorms and/or clouds associated with them. There isn’t much support for additional thunderstorms later this afternoon, but the front and gradient being near the area suggests that, through around 2pm, clouds and showers associated with decaying thunderstorms from the Ohio Valley could impact the region.

Beyond that, the weather looks warm and comfortable today and temperatures in the low 80’s will be welcomed with open arms by many. We aren’t looking at a likelihood of any more significant precipitation, so if you’re planning an outdoor event, you should be okay — save for some drying which will be necessary after the heavy rain early this morning.

For those who love Spring and Summer temperatures, the forecast takes an unfortunate turn late tonight into Sunday as a back door cold front approaches.  A frequent menace so far this Spring season, these fronts originate from the cooler, maritime air in New England. This one will be no different — as the front moves through tonight into Sunday, temperatures will fall several degrees from where they were today.

A significant backdoor front moves south from New England tonight with cooler temperatures Sunday.

A significant backdoor front moves south from New England tonight with cooler temperatures Sunday.

High temperatures on Sunday are likely to only reach into the upper 50’s and lower 60’s. This will, of course, be generally welcomed as pleasant conditions will continue. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected — the air will just feel quite a bit cooler compared to the past several days. An active weather pattern looks to continue into early next week as another significant storm system develops into the Central United States.

This will force a front eastwards into the Northeast US, with moisture return near the front supporting the potential for heavy rain. The progressive nature of the system overall suggests just a period of steady rain as the front comes through Monday and Monday Night, with improving conditions by Tuesday. Our attention then turns to the potential for a more significant storm later next week, but we’ll leave the details of that to a  later post this weekend. For now, enjoy the warmth. We’ll talk to you all soon!