AM Update: Coastal storm skirts by, summer heat looms
A day which once looked lost to the soggy rains from a coastal storm will turn out quite alright, and the weekend that follows will be the warmest of the year. We come bearing good news this morning, because that day is today and the weekend that follows is just over the hill! Yes, we are finally on the tail end of a drawn out dreary, rainy and cool pattern which was brought into our area by the presence of high latitude blocking.
A coastal storm system will skirt the region to the east today, with heavy rains off the Mid Atlantic and Northeast Coast from today in tonight. As this low pressure system develops, swinging eastward alongside a large trough sitting over the Northeast States, rising air is likely to its northwest. This will produce heavy rain offshore, but also allow sinking air (subsidence) to spread into the Northeast during the day.
The result? Relatively pleasant and seasonably warm weather, with partly cloudy skies and very little chance of precipitation. Sometimes a close call with a coastal storm is the best recipe for improving weather, as the subsidence we mentioned likely saves us from another day of showers and clouds. Temperatures are expected to run towards seasonable by the afternoon hours. The coastal storm will track east of New England later today.
Friday and Saturday are expected to provide a bit of a regression in terms of weather conditions, with the opportunity for showers and storms during the afternoon on both days. Temperatures, however, will continue to gradually recover towards summer-like levels, reaching near and then above average on Friday and Saturday respectively. The coverage of showers and storms is expected to be isolated to scattered at best.
European model showing heat index values working their way into the middle and upper 90’s early next week
The weekend will lead us into a summer-like pattern, as the effects of a changing Pacific jet stream are finally felt in our region. A deep trough digging into the Western and Central US will pump a large ridge into the Eastern United States, allowing mid level heights to rise dramatically and southwest winds to take over at the surface. This will lead to rapidly warming temperatures by the end of the weekend.
By early next week, the warmest airmass of the season thus far will be settling over the Northeast States. Temperatures are likely to rise well into the 90’s on more than a few days early next week, with the opportunity for a heat wave in the Northeast States from Monday onward. It remains to be seen how long the heat will last — but for now, it any signs of a prolonged cool or damp pattern in the medium range are long gone.
Stay tuned for more updates on the incoming heat and otherwise, have a wonderful Thursday!