Isolated Strong T-Storms Possible for the Northeast Late Today

Good morning and happy Saturday! Good news! Today is now looking pretty good overall for any outdoor plans. Showers and thunderstorms that were associated with a warm front and a mid-level shortwave from overnight are already moving offshore early this morning. Behind it, clouds will clear for more sunshine for the rest of the morning. Then partly sunny skies are expected for most of the afternoon. It will be warm and humid with high temperatures in upper 70s to lower 80s and more southerly winds today. Temperatures may be a little cooler near the shore.

Much of the time will be rain-free. But some scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely pop again later this afternoon and early this evening, as a cold front and shortwave trough axis approaches from the west. Especially over Interior locations where instability and more juxtaposed with forcing, particularly underneath the right-entrance region on strong upper-level streak. Latest guidance indicates moderate instability this afternoon MLCAPES 1000-2500  J/kg and effective shear between 30-40kts, mainly over the Interior. This may support some isolated strong-severe thunderstorms with some gusty winds or hail. Locally heavy rainfall and frequent cloud to ground lightning is also possible.

NAM model forecast high MLCAPE and shear this afternoon.

NAM model forecast high MLCAPE and shear this afternoon.

For these reasons,  the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk for severe weather for Interior parts of Northeast. But weak low-level shear and convergence along the cold front, is likely to mitigate more organized severe weather and coverage of convection today. Also more marine influence from southerly winds, will likely result in lower instability, over coastal areas, particularly over parts of Long Island and Southern New England. So showers and thunderstorms may weaken or fall apart before reaching these areas later this evening.

The cold front and shortwave trough axis will move through later tonight .Skies will begin clearing with more northwest winds. Then high pressure will be provide more pleasant, warm weather on Sunday and into Monday. High both days will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s again, but with lower humidity. Next chance of some showers will come during Monday night and Tuesday, as another shortwave trough approaches from the Great Lakes and a wave of low pressure develops along the Mid-Atlantic coast. But the pattern is currently expected to be too progressive for a widespread or significant rainfall event for Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions.

Stay tuned for more premium updates on the weather over several days, on our Main Dashboard and with more articles to come. Have a great day!