Pleasant Weather Today, Isolated PM T-Storms Tuesday, More Unsettled Late Week

Good Morning and Happy Monday! Today will be another pleasant warm day. This will allow for a return flow and more mid-high level clouds to filter and mix with sunshine as the day goes on. Humidity will also increase a little bit later this afternoon. But overall it will be pleasant warm summer day, with high temperatures in the lower to middle 80s this afternoon. A light southeast flow may keep temperatures slightly cooler along the shore.

Partly cloudy skies are expected through tonight  A weak upper-level disturbance will be moving through early tonight. But there will be little or no instability tonight. So only a slight chance for some isolated showers. Most areas will be dry. Some areas of patchy fog may also develop late tonight, especially along coastal areas, as onshore flow enhances low-level moisture underneath inversion. Cloud cover will keep temperatures warmer tonight. Low temperatures will likely be in the lower to middle 60s over the Interior areas and in upper 60s to near 70 over more urban and coastal areas.

More clouds than sunshine is expected on Tuesday, as a weak cold front and shortwave trough will approaches from the west. However, the best shear and forcing will be over parts of Northern New York and New England and instability will be meager closer to I-95 corridor and coastal areas. So only a few isolated or widely showers or thunderstorms are possible, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. The best chance for any isolated strong-severe thunderstorms will also be over Interior parts of New York and New England.

NAM model forecast with highest MLCAPE and 500mb bulk shear over Interior Northeast areas Tuesday afternoon

NAM model forecast with highest MLCAPE (instability values) and 500mb bulk shear over Interior Northeast areas Tuesday afternoon

Behind the cold front and shortwave trough, upper-level ridging and more west-northwest downslope flow could help temperatures rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s over Wednesday, over much of I-95 corridor and coastal plain. Then high pressure from Southeast Canada will push a weak backdoor cold front through region sometime during Wednesday night or Thursday morning. This will result in light north-northeast flow with somewhat cooler temperatures on Thursday.

A stronger frontal system with low pressure tracking primarily track over the Great Lakes, will begin moving into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic with more scattered showers and thunderstorms possible late Thursday into Friday. But the shortwave trough with this system will likely more shear and forcing further northwest the Great Lakes. Confluence underneath an upper-level low over Southeast Canada, may still support a more stable maritime airmass over the Northeast. So while some isolated strong-severe t-storms are possible, more organized or widespread severe weather isn’t anticipated at this time.

However, a weak secondary low forming along a warm front further south, may enhance more convection or rainfall. With tropical moisture surging up the coast, some locally heavy rainfall and flooding is possible. But with lift and instability uncertain, we have low confidence with more heavy rainfall and flooding hazards at this time. Temperatures will depend largely on the northward progress of the warm front and the amount of cloud cover. There could be a wide range of temperatures, between some mid-upper 50s and 80s or lower 90s over parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic on Thursday or Friday.

GFS model forecast with preicipitable values with near 2.00" into New England and more instability further southwest on Friday afternoon.

GFS model forecast with precipitable values with near 2.00″ into New England and more instability further southwest on Friday afternoon

Some improving weather is expected this weekend, as the frontal system and shortwave trough moves into Southeast Canada. A few isolated showers are possible, especially over Interior NY/New England again on Sunday, as another weak shortwave trough and cold front moves through. Temperatures will likely be closer to normal as high pressure with a Canadian airmass moving into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions. But at this time, the weather doesn’t look bad for any outdoor plans. Stay tuned for more premium forecast updates on the main dashboard and with articles to come this week.