Heavy Rainfall & Strong -Severe T-Storms Possible Today

Good morning! Happy Friday! More unsettled weather for today, as a frontal system and shortwave trough moves through during the day. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely this morning, as warm front moves through the region. Instability is mostly weak or elevated. So the main threat with these showers and thunderstorms will be some heavy downpours, that could cause some localized minor flooding on roadways and poor drainage areas. Otherwise, later today, as the warm front lifts further northward, skies may clear for some sunshine by early this afternoon. This will help temperatures rise into the lower to middle 80s this afternoon. Except over Long Island and south-facing shores,  more southerly winds will keep temperatures from rising out of the mid-upper 70s.

But then more showers and thunderstorms are likely later this afternoon and evening, as a cold front approaches and instability increases ahead of it. Generally weak-modest lapse rates will mitigate more organized or widespread severe weather. However, model guidance indicates some high instability with MLCAPE between 1500-3000 joules juxtaposed with 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear may result some strong-severe thunderstorms with gusty or damaging winds, particular from over Delaware River Valley to Hudson Valley. Some isolated strong-severe thunderstorm may also reaching the Northeast NJ and NYC metro, before likely weakening as moving into stable marine airmass over Long Island and Connecticut. Model soundings also show winds veering with height and low LCL heights, may also support a few supercells with isolated tornadoes. Precipitable water values between 2.00” to 2.50” may also support locally very heavy rainfall and flash flooding in some spots.

 

The Storm Prediction Center has issued Slight Risk for parts of the region

The Storm Prediction Center has issued Slight Risk for parts of the region for later today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will gradually wind down later tonight, as instability and forcing weakens. Then more improving weather is expected on Saturday, with more subsidence causing clouds to break for sunshine. However, few isolated showers or t-storms could pop during the late afternoon and early evening hours as shortwave trough and a weak cold front moves through, especially over the Interior locations.  This activity will then diminish Saturday night. Then more sunshine is expected for Sunday as high pressure moves into the Northeast. Temperatures will be very warm despite passing of cold fronts. More westerly downsloping winds, will cause temperature to rise into mid-upper 80s, perhaps to near 90 in some spots.

Early next week, high pressure will likely remain in control with more fair and seasonable warm weather. Until a larger upper-level trough and frontal system beings approaching from the Great Lakes late Tuesday or Wednesday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase again, with more southerly plume of moisture streaming northward into the Northeast. Stronger wind fields and large scale forcing may also result in another for more organized severe weather and heavy rainfall hazards. Then temperatures will cool down to near or below normal later next week, as the Canadian airmass enters the Northeast. Stay tuned for more premium updates on the main dashboard severe weather threat later today and forecast through this weekend into next week!