Unsettled Weather Today, More Pleasant This Weekend, Watching Jose for Next Week

Good morning! More unsettled weather is likely today. First, some areas of patchy fog will clear out later this morning. Then a large mid-upper trough over OH/TN Valley will be moving eastward  with more cloud cover and scattered showers and thunderstorms today over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions today. Shortwave energy and wind fields with the trough will gradually be weakening, as it approaches the coastline. So we don’t anticipated any more organized convection or severe weather. For most part today is just looking more dreary, more warm and muggy conditions.

But latest models indicate some pockets of higher instability of MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg and 700-500mb lapse rates 6.5 to 7.0 C/km along with 25-35kts of 0-6km bulk/effective shear, as a cold-pool aloft moves through the Northeast. So a few isolated strong thunderstorms are possible with some gusty winds or small hail, especially over the Interior this afternoon. Precipitable water values near 1.50″ may support some locally heavy rainfall in spots. But a moderate mid-level west-southwesterly flow should keep any convection moving along today. So no significant flooding hazards are anticipated. There is some concern that cloud cover may hinder instability for stronger convection. Also closer to the coast, more stable marine influence from southerly flow should reduce convective threats.

NAM model forecast for MLCAPE and 500mb bulk shear

NAM model forecast for MLCAPE and 500mb bulk shear

850mb temperatures are between 14°C to 16°C again today. But cloud cover will likely support high temperatures in mid-upper 70s, especially with clouds over the Interior and sea-breezes near the shore.  Some spots closer to the I-95 corridor could reach the lower 80s, if clouds break for enough sunshine this afternoon. Any convection will taper of this evening, with the loss of daytime heating and instability. Some convective debris will probably linger into early tonight. Then more clearing is possible late tonight, a drier westerly flow, developing. Overnight lows should be in the upper 50s to lower 60s over interior and mid 60s to around 70s over more urban and coastal areas.

More improving on Friday and over the weekend, as an upper-level ridge builds again over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions. More isolated showers or thunderstorms are still possible, as some weak mid-level shortwave energy lingering behind and instability building each day, especially over the Interior. Otherwise, mostly pleasant weather with partly sunny skies and some warmer than normal temperatures expected each day.. Daytime highs each day will likely range from upper 70s to middle 80s. Overnight lows, with clear to partly cloudy skies in the 50s over Interior, 60s near the coast.

Finally, we will be monitoring Hurricane Jose recurving over the Western Atlantic for Monday through Wednesday. Some of the latest model guidance suggest that Jose may turn back westward towards  as the upper-level ridge moves north of Jose. Some shortwave energy over Eastern US may also interact or phase with Jose. This would result in even more movement closer to the Northeast or Mid-Atlantic coast. But this shortwave energy is weak or diffuse, on much of the model guidance. Some ensemble members also show hook back left into the coast. But the major ensemble show Jose eventually recurving again around or east of 40/70 Benchmark, next week

Latest individual ECMWF ensemble track and intensity soluions for Jose

Latest individual ECMWF ensemble track and intensity solutions for Jose

At this time, we don’t anticipate Jose to come close enough or make landfall for major direct impacts.There is somewhat of a better chance for some fringe impacts, with some rain, wind, beach erosion and tidal flooding, along the coastal sections. But uncertainty is still very high, giving the faster flow out of Pacific. Jose will also likely be moving slowly over cooler waters. So some weakening is likely, anyway. But we will continue to keep a close monitor on Jose through the weekend. Stay tuned for more premium forecast updates on the main dashboard and in another article on Hurricane Jose by this evening.