Jose Impacts on the New England & Mid-Atlantic Coasts

Happy Tuesday! Hurricane Jose remains well offshore. But will still have some relatively minor impacts over coastal parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic over the next few days or so. Meanwhile, more attention has turned to Hurricane Maria which has become extremely powerful Category 5 hurricane, as moved over Dominica last night. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands may take a direct hit from by Wednesday. But this article, will mostly discuss impacts from Jose

Based on latest observations and model guidance, Hurricane Jose will be tracking further southeast of the 40/70 benchmark, than previously expected. So only some outer fringe rain and wind impacts are expected for most coastal areas of between the Delmarva and New England through Wednesday. Showers and breezy conditions are generally expected, as outer rainbands from Jose push inland from off the ocean. Some locally heavier downpours with possibly higher wind gusts to around 40mph, especially along the New Jersey, Delaware and Long Island shores. But true tropical storm conditions aren’t largely anticipated.

Jose also appears to be loosing some tropical characteristics and becoming more of a powerful Nor’easter, over next few days. But it continues to maintain a compact, warm inner core, with very heavy bands of rainfall and stronger winds at least gusting to hurricane force.. This northern part of this core may clip parts of Southeast Massachusetts, especially around Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket. These areas more likely experience true tropical storm force conditions, with more sustained wind between 35 to 45mph and gusts as high 60mph possible. Thus, tropical storm warning have been issued for these areas. But overall this storm, won’t be any worse conditions than a typical Nor’easter for these areas as well. The airmass is also too stable to support any heightened tornado threats.

3kmNAMradarloop

3km NAM model simulated radar over next 48hrs, with the outer rainbands from Jose moving inland and then Jose’s core moving over Cape Cod/Natuacket late tonight into Wednesday

The biggest impact from Jose will likely be from Jose’s swells causing high surf and rip currents along the shores and over the coastal waters. These will likely some significant beach erosion and damage to dunes. Wave heights could up to around 10 to 15 feet, especially along oceanfront shores of Long Island and Southern New England. Also the northeast winds along with higher tide cycle with the new moon approach Wednesday, will cause some locally moderate coastal flooding is during high tides this evening. But wind direction from changing to north/northwest direction on Wednesday will likely prevent more moderate to major coastal flooding.

Then later in the week, Jose will undergo more occlusion underneath upper-level low,gradually weaken and loose more tropical characteristics. But the storm will be left behind by a passing mid-level trough and then will be blocked from going further out into the Atlantic by ridging developing to the east. So Jose is likely to meander or do a loop de loop, while slowly decaying over the Western Atlantic. This could keep some chance of isolated showers into Thursday and Friday, especially over Southeastern New England. Otherwise, a trough over the Western US will cause an upper-level ridging to build with more pleasant, warmer weather for much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic late this week into the weekend.

GFS model showing ridge building into Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region late in the week. While Jose still meanders offshore and Maria begins approaching from east of Bahamas

GFS model showing ridge building into Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region late in the week. While Jose still meanders offshore and Maria begins approaching from east of Bahamas

If what remains of Jose is still lingering around not too out over the Western Atlantic, it could also play a significant role in how Hurricane Maria may impact the US east coast by early next week. We discussed this in more detail in another premium article last night. Another update with more analysis on Maria’s potential future over the Caribbean and United States, based today’s guidance will be out later this afternoon or evening. You can also get latest information and follow Hurricane Marie on our tropical weather dashboard. Stay tuned for more updates on forecast for Northeast and Mid-Atlantic throughout the week on the main dashboard and with more articles to come.

 

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