Long Range Update: Cold Intensifies, Active Pattern to Follow

Good evening! As has been heavily advertised for a while, a pattern change to cold is now imminent, and should be able to sustain itself for a couple of weeks thanks to retrograding and deepening troughing near the Aleutians. This leads to continued downstream impressive responses near the West Coast, with plenty of latent heat release and poleward ridging. This will dislodge a couple of shots of Arctic air into the Eastern two thirds of the US — into a lot of the major markets.

While the first shot of colder air later this week and weekend will be impressive in some spots, it is the second shot of colder air around the middle of next week that should be much more impressive, as it will truly have an Arctic source region, thanks to the poleward ridging. There will be a nearly direct pipeline due north to south from the Arctic for this cold air to plunge towards the US.

The above video explains this progression and highlights the significance of this cold. We also discuss the potential for moderation late in the month, and how the Pacific Jet extension that may cause this moderation could lead to a major winter storm somewhere in the East as we get closer to the Holidays. Additionally, we discuss the potential for other winter storms in the more near future, though their significance may be limited by a lack of good wave spacing.