And you thought the worst was over.
For the past few weeks, we’ve been chatting both on our blog and internally with enterprise clients regarding the development of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event (SSW). In laymen terms, this occurs when a rapid temperature rise occurs in the Arctic stratosphere. In this situation, the stratospheric polar vortex has split in two, and rapid (nearly record breaking) warming has occurred in the stratosphere, particularly in the Arctic regions of the North Atlantic and across the North Pole.
We wrote last week and a few weeks back about the importance of this event – how stratospheric warming, when coupled properly with the troposphere (where our weather occurs) can have a significant impact on our weather by promoting high latitude ridging and blocking. We are starting to see these exact things come to roost on forecast models – and we’ll explain why we have higher than normal confidence in wintry weather returning to the Eastern United States by the first day of March.