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Long Range Update: Cold Intensifies, Active Pattern to Follow

 

Good evening! As has been heavily advertised for a while, a pattern change to cold is now imminent, and should be able to sustain itself for a couple of weeks thanks to retrograding and deepening troughing near the Aleutians. This leads to continued downstream impressive responses near the West Coast, with plenty of latent heat release and poleward ridging. This will dislodge a couple of shots of Arctic air into the Eastern two thirds of the US — into a lot of the major markets.

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Extremely Amplified Pattern Will Set the Stage for Arctic Cold

 

Good evening! The changes to the pattern have been discussed for a while, but now that the model data has finally caught on, things are starting to truly get interesting and we can entertain possibilities.

An initially very zonal pattern will quickly become very amplified thanks to changes with a train of waves in the Pacific and a traffic jam of waves building in the Atlantic. Eventually this forces an amplified ridge in the Pacific to build towards the Arctic and dislodge plenty of cold into the Eastern half of the US, as the corresponding deep trough will have nowhere to go thanks to the aforementioned traffic in the Atlantic.

The video below has all of the details on the coming cold, its severity, and potential duration. It also discusses potential winter storm threats that may arise in the pattern.

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Confidence increasing in development of cold, active pattern in Eastern US

Good morning and happy Wednesday, everyone! Anomalous warmth has currently spread across a large majority of the United States, well forecast in is breadth and timing, but impressive nonetheless. Since the beginning of the week, much of the Midwestern United States has been blanketed by temperatures several degrees above normal averages for this time of year. The mid and upper level ridge in the atmosphere that is responsible for this warmth will continue its trek eastward over the next few days, allowing warmer temperatures to gradually move towards the Eastern United States.

As we speak, thousands of miles away, in the North Pacific Ocean, a major change to the hemispheric weather pattern is underway. This fundamental change will mark the end of the anomalous warmth across the aforementioned regions, working in tandem with several other global circulations to support the development of an anomalously cold pattern. In fact, by the middle of next week, temperatures will fall well below average across a large portion of the Mississippi River Valley and East Coast. This will obviously have a large impact on the markets, and Gas Weighted Heating Degree Days are expected to quickly jump above the 10 and 30 year averages. Lets break down why this is happening and how we can expect things to evolve.

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Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits

Midday Long Range: Transient warmth followed by big changes

 

Good afternoon and Happy Monday! Transient warmth remains the story during the better part of this ongoing week. In our morning briefing we discussed the evolution of a broad ridge, which will develop across the Western and Central United States this week. This ridging will shift eastward over the next 5 to 7 days, bringing anomalous warmth eastward with it. Warmer than normal temperatures are expected across a large portion of the United States this week, particularly in the Central and Northern Plains.

With the movement of this ridge eastward, as progressive as it may be in its overall nature, will come a steadily lower than normal GWHDD when compared to 10 and 30 year averages. This has been well reflected in the latest model data and in our forecast packages. We only made minor tweaks to our going forecast in the next 5 days or so. The major changes to the forecast look likely to come during the middle of December.

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