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Unsettled Weather Today, More Pleasant This Weekend, Watching Jose for Next Week

Good morning! More unsettled weather is likely today. First, some areas of patchy fog will clear out later this morning. Then a large mid-upper trough over OH/TN Valley will be moving eastward  with more cloud cover and scattered showers and thunderstorms today over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions today. Shortwave energy and wind fields with the trough will gradually be weakening, as it approaches the coastline. So we don’t anticipated any more organized convection or severe weather. For most part today is just looking more dreary, more warm and muggy conditions.

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IrmaVisible

Hurricane Irma a Major Threat to the Southeast US, Cool Weather for the Northeast

Happy Wednesday! Some unsettled weather continues for the Northeast today. Then improving weather is likely for the rest of the week. But it will feel more likely early Autumn. Hurricane Irma will become a major threat to the Southeast US this weekend and early next week. More detailed analysis on Irma’s potential future is below.

First for today, a few weak waves of low pressure running will be running along a slow-moving cold front. This will result in multiple rounds of showers and/or t-storms will continue moving through parts of the Northeast, especially near I-95 corridor and coastal plain through much of tonight. Instability is marginal at best. So no severe weather hazards are anticipated. However, some locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding is possible with high precipitable water values over 1.50″.

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Irma a powerful Category 5 Hurricane moving toward Caribbean

Hurricane Irma maintained immense strength and power per this evenings 8:00pm National Hurricane Center Advisory, with maximum sustained winds of 185mph. The Hurricane is in the upper echelon of Atlantic-based storms, packing the second highest sustained winds on record since the satellite era of hurricane observations began. Irma will continue on a west/northwest heading this evening, on course for potentially catastrophic impacts in parts of the Caribbean.

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GOES 16 Satellite Image of Harvey, courtesy of NEXLAB.

Midday Update: Harvey now a hurricane, major hurricane likely before landfall

 

 

Harvey has been strengthening this morning, with dropping pressure and increasing winds per the latest information from the hurricane hunter aircraft and dropsondes. In fact, a special 1:00pm EDT update has confirmed that Harvey has already strengthened into a hurricane, with winds of 80mph and a pressure down to 981mb. Based on latest satellite imagery, which shows thunderstorms exploding around the eye, as well as the aforementioned new observations, Harvey may be starting to rapidly intensify. It is now expected that the storm will strengthen into a Major Hurricane prior to landfall in Texas.

The potential for the storm to strengthen into a Major Hurricane prior to landfall has been present all along, but remains highly dependent on the exact speed and track of the tropical system. As it stands today, however, the conditions surrounding Harvey are highly favorable for rapid intensification. Within a low shear environment and underneath a larger, broad anticyclone, Harvey appears likely to develop asymmetrical outflow characteristics with a strong, deep core and eyewall.

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