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Premium Long Range: More Heat & Severe Weather Risks Going Into July

After a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, more pleasant weather with temperatures near to slightly below normal will continue over the next few days. But there are many signs of overall pattern change support more typical mid-summery weather with some hot temperatures, humidity and some thunderstorms over the region, as we move into the few weeks of July.

A trough will dig into the Northern Rockies and Plains during the middle of this week. This will cause ridge build over Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region late this week and into this weekend. This will much warmer and humid airmass to return to region. Temperatures with more southwest flow and enough sunshine could exceed 90°F degrees in many spots by Friday and Saturday. Some afternoon sea-breezes each day will likely some coastal sections a little cooler. But it still be uncomfortably humid.

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PM Premium Update: Unsettled weather lies ahead

It so often works this way, but it never gets old: Torrential rain and heavy thunderstorms one day give way to beautiful blue skies and drier air the next. Today was the latter in the sequence of days, but there is a flaw in the design of appreciating such a thing; the repetitiveness that lies ahead signals an unsettled pattern will continue. Yes, stormy days again appear on the horizon in the not-so-distant future, and the atmospheric pattern doesn’t look to let up.

Forecast models are in rather good agreement regarding the overall evolution of the pattern, suggestive that multiple disturbances will swing through the Mississippi Valley and Northeast States over the next several days. And while that my not necessarily mean a washout for the area, it will mean continued opportunities at precipitation and a lack of steady warmth. This comes as bad news for those who have been longing for summer’s heat to arrive.

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Weekly Outlook: Strong-Severe T-Storms Today…More Tropical Moisture By This Weekend?

A cold front associated with an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes, will be approaching the region with some showers and thunderstorms by this evening, A southwesterly flow ahead of this front, will cause dewpoints to rise into upper 60s and 70s this by afternoon. This will result in very warm, muggy day with temperatures reaching the mid-upper 80s away from the coast, with some sunshine this afternoon. Sea-breezes near the coast will keep temperatures from rising out of the upper 70s to lower 80s. More southerly winds  will also lead high risk of rip current this afternoon along along south-shore facing beaches of NYC/Long Island and Central New Jersey.

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Friday's 12z NAM model valid for Monday evening shows several clusters of strong thunderstorms (Tropical Tidbits).

Thunderstorms with Heavy Rain and Flooding Likely on Monday

 

After a very nice stretch of weather over the past couple of days, things have changed as we entered the weekend. While there will be some rain chances from today (Friday) through Sunday, we do not expect anything significant during that stretch. This article will focus on Monday, which has a higher potential to produce a myriad of impacts across the area, including strong to severe thunderstorms with heavy downpours and flash flooding.

A strong, dynamic trough will be pushing into the area from the Great Lakes and provide deep southwest flow across the entire atmosphere. This will advect plenty of moisture into the area, with precipitable water values over 2″ — highly supportive of heavy downpours and flash flooding. A strong cold front will also be pushing towards the area out ahead of this system, placing us in a warm sector which with the aforementioned deep southwest flow, should provide plenty of instability as well with SBCAPE values around 2,000 J/KG in some spots.

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