Posts

John Homenuk

Cooler risks increasing, volatile pattern on horizon

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Happy Tuesday! For the past several days, discussions have turned from the presence of abnormal and anomalous warmth towards winds of change, which are signaling the return of cooler air and a volatile weather pattern. Overnight forecast models continue to supplement these ideas, with further confirmation that the pattern is set to undergo wholesale changes across the large majority of North America.

As we have discussed, most of these changes are being driven by the Tropical Pacific and the MJO, where global circulations are being affected heavily by its progression over the next few days. While La Niña’s base state has become entrenched in the atmosphere (30-day moving SOI now up to +11.3), the progression of the MJO will allow for a wave-pattern realignments by Days 5-7.

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John Homenuk

Storm Chase 2017: Second day model analysis and much more

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When I was in the 10th grade, I bought my first cell phone. I mean I actually bought it, with my own money from my own work. It was a hell of an accomplishment for my teenaged self, and I was proud of it. I was more proud that it was a first edition iPhone, and I couldn’t believe the power of what I had in my pocket. It took some getting used to, but soon enough I could access the internet and send text messages with my thumb!

More than 10 years later, I’m preparing to use my 7th edition iPhone as a tool to enhance a localized internet connection in my car. What a time to be alive. The mobile hotspot has been the discussion point of the day, and we’re making sure that we have it properly set up to have access to the internet at all times during our chase. This is a critical part of our operations and so we’re being fairly hard-nosed with it. We want it to be exactly right.

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John Homenuk

All Zones Update 11:00am: Snow continuing near the coast

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Regional mesoscale analysis shows a developing storm system, which is continuing to move off the coast of the Mid Atlantic states and strengthen this morning. Bands of light and moderate snow have expanded and intensified over the last hour or two, aided by the development of more favorable frontogenesis and lift in the atmosphere. These dynamics will continue to remain favorable over the next few hours.

Snow will continue to evolve from southwest to northeast throughout all zones through this afternoon. The heaviest and most impactful snow will occur across Southern and Eastern New Jersey, Central and Eastern Long Island, and Eastern Connecticut. Here, upwards of 6″ of snow appears likely. Roads and travel will likely be heavily impacted by the snowfall and conditions will deteriorate as the late morning and early afternoon continue.

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