Posts

John Homenuk

Afternoon Roundup: Ridiculously pleasant weather

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While the eyes of many have been focused on Tropical Storm Erika (and rightfully so), the weather in our local area has taken a turn for the better over the last 24 hours. Behind a cold front which moved through the area earlier this week, the airmass has undergone a dramatic change. The departing moisture and humidity has given way to comfortable air, plenty of sun, and a lovely breeze. High temperatures are still reaching into the lower 80’s, keeping things pleasantly warm as well. The trend will continue through the next few days as high pressure remains firmly in control.

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John Homenuk

T.S Erika, and her future over the next week

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It is always interesting, this time of year, when a Tropical Storm or Hurricane forms to the east of the Lesser Antilles. While, obviously, no two meteorological patterns are exactly the same, tropical systems that form in this general area seem to have a tendency to catch the attention of those on the United States East Coast and Gulf Shores. It’s no surprise, really, given the history of such storms making landfall somewhere within the United States. An equal amount of systems, still, recurve “harmlessly” out into the open Atlantic Ocean or, in the case of Hurricane Danny just days ago, succumb to shear and unfavorable atmospheric conditions and die.

Tropical Storm Erika (with a “K”) formed last night in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean, with maximum sustained winds of around 45 miles per hour. Erika is expected to continue on a generally northwest heading over the next few days, gradually strengthening as she heads toward the Bahamas. Intermittently poor atmospheric conditions (albeit, no prolonged periods of strong shear) should keep the strengthening “Gradual” without any rapid intensification.

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John Homenuk

PM Roundup: Changeable weather ahead of cold front

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While forecast models initially suggested clouds and showers for much of the second half of this weekend, sensible weather conditions turned out to be quite pleasant. Warm ocean waters can partially be thanked for that, as even east winds weren’t able to advect in a cold and damp marine layer. Most notably, showers and thunderstorms stayed away from our area for the most part — leading to pleasant conditions on both Saturday and Sunday. An elongated cold front will finally make its approach to the area late Monday into Tuesday, with cooler and less humid air arriving behind it. In the meantime, changeable weather is expected ahead of it on Monday. Highs will again be in the 80’s, and after some early clouds, the sun will return — with scattered showers and storms by afternoon and evening. Some highlights of the weather over the next few days are included below:

  • The weather will remain warm, with dew points back into the 60’s, on Sunday evening. Overnight, some clouds and showers may push inland from the ocean waters as surface winds turn easterly.
  • Monday will feature partly cloudy skies after some early clouds. Temperatures and dew points will again be high. A few scattered showers and storms are possible during the afternoon and evening hours.
  • A cold front approaches Monday Night into Tuesday. Models are inconsistent with its timing — some take it through the area early Tuesday, others delay it until Tuesday afternoon. Regardless, cooler air will be on the way by Tuesday Night into Wednesday with lower humidity values as well.
John Homenuk

Morning Roundup: Humid, unsettled weather continues

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A near-tropical airmass has settled into the region over the past few days, with high dew points and temperatures in the 80’s creating uncomfortably sticky conditions. This airmass, most notably, was a major factor in the flooding rains and thunderstorms over parts of Northeast New Jersey on Wednesday. While much of the area saw little rain, isolated locations saw totals upwards of one inch, with isolated spots receiving more. Training thunderstorms produced 6.24″ of rainfall in less than 3 hours in Mountainside, NJ.

Today, the airmass will remain warm and humid with a southeasterly flow in the low levels continuing to draw in air off the ocean waters. The best forcing for thunderstorm development will remain back to our west, but a few isolated storms cannot be ruled out. These will, again, be capable of producing extremely heavy rain. The frontal boundary associated with this storm system won’t actually cross the region until Friday afternoon. Here are some highlights from around the meteorological community:

  • Torrential rains produced over 6″ of rain in less than 3 hours in Mountainside, NJ yesterday. Widespread flooding including damage to roads was reported in Mountainside and Scotch Plains. 
  • Thunderstorms with torrential rains will again be possible today, but are expected to generally stay farther west than on Wednesday. The airmass, however, will remain very humid and warm.
  • A frontal boundary associated with the storm system over the Central US will finally approach the area on Friday, with the humid and uncomfortable airmass finally scouring out by Friday evening.
  • Saturday looks likely to be a beautiful day with lower humidity, west winds, and highs in the lower to middle 80’s.