Posts

John Homenuk

Strong cold front will bring Autumn air to Northeast

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A strong cold frontal boundary, currently situated across New York State and New England, will drop southward through the Northeast states Friday evening and early Saturday morning. While a north to south moving cold front may seem somewhat uneventful this time of year, the temperature gradient associated with this particular front is quite impressive.

Moreover, the airmass behind it is quite cold — even for this time of year — with temperatures 10 degrees below average or more, even in parts of New England where seasonal averages are rapidly falling now. The mid to upper 80 degree temperatures located ahead of the front will become a distant memory throughout most of the region by Saturday, when highs will struggle to reach the low 70s, and may not reach 70 in northern suburbs. A northerly breeze will help it feel truly like Autumn.

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Doug Simonian

Premium Weekly Outlook: Unseasonable warmth bookended by tastes of fall

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Another relatively calm and dry week looks to be in-store, as we’ll start off with a taste of fall, moderate to unseasonably warm temperatures, and then again experience a taste of fall. A cold front that moved through on Saturday night has completely cleared the area, giving way to a broad area of high pressure across the region. This has helped dropped humidity substantially, bringing us very comfortable temperatures — we started in the 50s in many locations —  as well as a lovely crisp morning. This high pressure will be in-control for today, with light winds, mostly sunny skies, and temperatures rising into the upper 70s to around 80. The weak wind flow may allow for some seabreezes to develop, but without a big difference in temperature between the land and ocean, these seabreezes should not be too strong, nor penetrate too far inland.

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John Homenuk

In Autumn, many eyes drawn to the North Pacific

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With Autumn very obviously and officially underway (have you been outside the past few days?), the questions have begun to surface regarding the upcoming winter — and if the Autumn pattern will foreshadow it. Unfortunately, it isn’t quite as simple as “A cold October means a cold winter” or ” A warm November means a warm winter”. If that were the case, we’d have long range forecasting figured out by now, and there would be much less urgency to winter outlooks. The best we have for now are correlations, analogs, and pattern drivers. When used together, the summation of these factors provide a higher probability of success in medium to long range forecasting. But these methods are far from perfect. The evolution of these different atmospheric oscillations during the autumn season can often give us substantial clues into the ensuing winter’s dominant index modalities.

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John Homenuk

Heavy rain, thunderstorms transition into crisp weekend

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Southwesterly winds have ushered in a warmer, more humid airmass this Friday morning. Temperatures are running in the mid 60’s throughout the area with low clouds and fog in the valleys and even some of the higher elevations of Northern NJ and Southeast NY. The southwesterly flow will continue to build into Friday afternoon, ahead of an approaching cold front. The warmer, more humid air will lead to increasing atmospheric instability by later this afternoon.

This instability, expanding from Southeast Pennsylvania into New York, will briefly align with favorable atmospheric shear parameters as a cold front approaches from the west this afternoon. In this area, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are likely moving from west to east through New Jersey, Southeast New York, Connecticut and potentially the NYC Metro Area.

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