Posts

John Homenuk

TS Bill’s remnants still an uncertainty this weekend

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Much has been made over the past few days in regards to the potential for heavy rain on Sunday. The remnants of Tropical Storm Bill are anticipated, by many forecast models, to move northeastward from the Ohio and Mississippi Valley’s into the Northeast States. A weak developing surface low near the area of the mid level disturbance is expected to aid in the development of heavy rain from the Mid Atlantic northeastward toward parts of the Northeast as well, as the system shifts toward the coast.

The problem, however, is that remnants of Tropical systems are unpredictable by nature. The high moisture, high energy, and intricate nature of the pattern in the mid levels of the atmosphere makes it very difficult on forecast models to try and pin down specifics. For us, this means an uncertain weekend forecast. And, yes, the potential that Sunday may turn out to be not quite a washout at all.

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John Homenuk

PM Update: Increasing clouds, unsettled weather returns

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So, we lucked out on Wednesday. A very weak mid level ridge and transition between disturbances allowed for pleasant conditions and high pressure. Temperatures fell several degrees from the past few days, but more notably, so did the humidity. Highs in the upper 70’s and lower 80’s were commonplace throughout the area Wednesday afternoon. Partly cloudy skies brought pleasant conditions as well, with a light breeze. It was, by all means, a winner of a day.

The same won’t be true for Thursday. Beginning tonight, high clouds will stream in as a disturbance approaches from the Ohio Valley. Moisture will return to the air and showers will be possible as early as overnight Wednesday. With the increased moisture, showers, and clouds, will come high temperatures only int he 70’s on Thursday. No severe weather threat is anticipated, with cooler more stable air in place throughout the area.

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John Homenuk

Remnants of TS Bill will impact weekend forecast

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While Tropical Storm Bill is making headlines today impacting parts of Texas, with rains expected in the Plains this week, we aren’t out of the woods here in the Northeast. A Tropical Storm thousands of miles away will eventually become engulfed in the mid and upper level atmospheric flow, bringing tropical moisture northeastward into the Ohio Valley and eventually the Northeast. For our area, this will have a major impact on the weekend forecast.

Forecast models are struggling with the exact intensity of TS Bill as it moves inland, as well as the timing of it’s absorption into the mid and upper level atmospheric flow. These two factors are very important for our areas forecast, as they will dictate the timing of a surge of tropical moisture into the Northeast US. Showers, thunderstorms, and even areas of heavy flooding rains are possible near where the center of the remnant low pressure tracks.

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