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John Homenuk

3 months later, Blizzard of ’16 becomes largest in NYC history

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Three months after the last snowflake from the prolific Blizzard of 2016 fell, it has ascended to become the #1 snowfall in New York City’s recorded history. The storm passes February 12th, 2006 which was the previous record holder. The announcement comes after weather enthusiasts and professionals were left disappointed by a 26.8″ measurement which brought the snowfall total just 0.1″ short of the February 2006 record. But a new publication from the National Weather Service says the total will be changed to a whopping 27.5″, adjusting the total well higher and making the Blizzard of 2016 the largest in the city’s history. 

It wasn’t additional snow that fell a few minutes after a measurement, or a last minute snow band that was added on to the snowfall total. It was, apparently a “miscommunication between the NWS WFO and Central Park Conservancy”. Or, more likely, a disturbing lack of communication between the two offices at all. The report also says that the Central Park Conservancy, which measures snowfall officially for Central Park, provided a worksheet with snowfall totals which was deemed “accurate”. The official worksheet recorded 0.2″ of snow on January 22nd, 27.3″ of snow on January 23rd, and a trace of snow on January 24th. How a snowfall total of 26.8″ was reported on the night of January 23rd, then, becomes a real head scratcher.

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John Homenuk

Was the NAM’s blizzard forecast really that good?

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Oh, the NAM. The source of so many colorful snowfall projections that spread like wildfire across social media. The weather model that gives meteorologists fits multiple times per season. The weather model that can pick out thunderstorms two days in advance, and completely mishandle a snowstorm at a 24 hour lead time. And now, the weather model that absolutely nailed the forecast for the Blizzard of 2016 in New York City.

The Blizzard of 2016 will likely go down as one of the most effectively modeled snowstorms in meteorological history. The signal for the storm system was evident as far as 8 days in advance (arguably longer via long range pattern recognition). Long range ensemble guidance and even individual operational model runs showed the storm systems evolution consistently 6 to 8 days in advance, with increasing agreement on a major low pressure system off the East Coast. And, up until Day 5 or so, the agreement was relatively unanimous among major global models such as the GFS, Euro and Canadian.

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John Homenuk

Buried: Blizzard of 2016 becomes one of the greats

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Let’s get this out of the way: On Wednesday evening, we made a post explaining why we were confident New York City would avoid blockbuster snowfall totals from this weekends storm.

We were wrong.

A last minute, buzzer-beater type north trend resulted in tremendous heavy snow bands moving over New York City on Saturday. All-time snowfall records were broken at Kennedy Airport (30.5″), LaGuardia Airport (27.9″). Central Park reported its second largest snowfall of all time at 26.8″, just .1″ shy of the record set back in February 2006. The impacts on the area were immense – with New York City shut down to all travel from 2:30pm Saturday until 7:00am Sunday.

The atmospheric dynamics at play during the storm system were even more incredible than the snow that fell. Tremendous lift, energy, and moisture surged northward on Saturday as a low pressure system tucked in near the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Bands of heavy snow surged north through New Jersey, with whiteout conditions and snowfall rates of 2″ per hour. These bands of snow quickly made their way toward New York City and Northeast New Jersey on Saturday morning — setting up from southwest to northeast through NJ, NYC, Long Island, and SW CT.

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