Cooler risks increasing, volatile pattern on horizon
Happy Tuesday! For the past several days, discussions have turned from the presence of abnormal and anomalous warmth towards winds of change, which are signaling the return of cooler air and a volatile weather pattern. Overnight forecast models continue to supplement these ideas, with further confirmation that the pattern is set to undergo wholesale changes across the large majority of North America.
As we have discussed, most of these changes are being driven by the Tropical Pacific and the MJO, where global circulations are being affected heavily by its progression over the next few days. While La Niña’s base state has become entrenched in the atmosphere (30-day moving SOI now up to +11.3), the progression of the MJO will allow for a wave-pattern realignments by Days 5-7.