Conditions have improved substantially across much of the Northeast this Friday afternoon as a rather weak cold front cleared out any remaining cloudy & unsettled conditions.
Happy Saturday!
Saturday should start off nice and clear, but chilly across the Northeast as and area of high pressure takes control of our weather. Conditions should gradually warm up throughout the day tomorrow with clear skies and southerly winds developing. This should allow temperatures to warm back up into the lower to middle 50’s across much of the New York metro area, with middle to upper 50’s likely over portions of the Mid Atlantic. Clear and dry conditions look to persist throughout the entirety of the day, so tomorrow will likely be an excellent day to go outside and enjoy the day! High pressure will continue to gradually move offshore tomorrow evening, but will still supply the region with enough warm air from the south to keep temperatures from dropping too low. Lows should be in the upper 30’s to lower 40’s for the area, with middle 40’s likely over portions of southern New Jersey.
Good Evening!
Today has has been a rather decent end to the work week with above-normal temperatures and light winds from the east. A warm front moved through the region the other night and introduced much warmer temperatures and higher dewpoints across much of the Northeast. This increased moisture from the southwesterly flow also allowed for more clouds to develop as well, but this did not stop highs from reaching into the middle 60’s to middle 70’s, which is a good deal above normal for this time of year. However, changes are on the way this evening, with a cold front currently located moving through central Pennsylvania. While this cold front isn’t all that strong, it will be strong enough to drop temperatures later tonight as well as knock dew points down to more seasonable levels. Additional, high pressure will begin to build in behind this front, so this will set up a strong enough pressure-gradient to create some gusty winds in the 15-25 mph range late tonight and into early tomorrow morning. Temperatures should be able to drop into the lower to middle 40’s tonight, with locations more north and west of the city likely seeing lows in the middle to upper 30’s. while conditions would otherwise be quite favorable for radiational cooling and some frost, the potential for gusty winds across the area should limit both of those possibilities.
High resolution visible satellite imagery, surface observations, and regional radar mosaic (Courtesy of SimuAWIPS)
Saturday Into Sunday
Saturday should have a nice and crisp start to the day as the northwesterly flow from Canada kicks in over the Northeast with winds still gusting in the 15-20 mph range. High pressure will also continue to build over the area, which should help promote sunnier skies and calm weather during the first half of the day. As we move deeper into the day tomorrow, winds should gradually shift from northerly to easterly, which will signify the start of another warm from passage. Dewpoints will also begin to increase once again as marine air works its way west, which will also work to gradually increase clouds by the late afternoon hours. Highs will likely reach the middle to upper 50’s tomorrow, with some locations closer to the coast likely making it to the 60’s. As the warm front begins to work its way inland, some weak low level energy will be present, which may help to increase the threat of showers across the area. These conditions should last into the evening hours, with lows staying in the middle to upper 40’s-some locations closer to the coast will likely be stuck in the 50’s due to warmer marine air aloft.
Sunday should start off quite the opposite of how Saturday did, as an approaching mid level warm front will increase moisture and available lift. This will cause an increased threat for showers, especially across western New Jersey and portions of eastern Pennsylvania. The overall progression of the front is still in question, but Sunday certainly looks to be quite a few degrees warmer than the previous day, with highs making it up into the middle to upper 60’s, which will be above average once again despite the increased threat for showers and cloudiness. Lows will likely stay rather mild with temperatures dipping into the upper 40’s and lower 50’s.
This afternoons high resolution NAM model showing showers located over eastern PA and potions of NJ early Sunday morning
A Look Into Next Week
By Monday, most of the Northeast should be well within the warm sector of the warm front, so expect warmer temperatures once again for the region, with 70’s quite likely-which will be a good deal above normal. Later in the day on Monday, an area of energy associated with a trough in southern Canada will be moving our area and will enhance southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. While this front will be weakening quite a bit from when it moves on in from the Ohio Valley, it certainly will have the potential to bring some showers later in the day as it approaches the coast. As the front pushes offshore by Monday evening, dry northwesterly winds will once again take over and provide a chillier airmass for the entire Northeast as Canadian high pressure builds in.
Conditions will then turn rather zonal from Tuesday until Thursday, with the jetstream generally blowing from west to east across the nation. This should allow the area of high pressure to stick around for a majority of the week, with mainly dry conditions expected over the region. Temperatures should generally stay near-normal during this period as cooler air from Canada bleeds south ever-so-slightly. Thursday may have a shot at rather cold lows as an approaching trough from Canada starts to move southward.
By Friday, things begin to get interesting as the models have been keying in on a deep trough moving in over the East and bringing a nice shot of unseasonably cold weather. Western ridging will improve just enough to allow the cold that has been trapped to our north to quickly come down south by Friday night in the form of an arctic front, which will likely drop lows below freezing across the entire zone, with some locations well off to the north and west seeing lows in the 20’s and even teens. Depending on how much low level moisture hangs around before this Arctic front moves through, some locations could actually see flurries or snow showers, but this is something that we will have to revisit next week. Regardless, the chances of a widespread freeze are increasing for the later part of next week.
This afternoons ECMWF model showing a sharp shot of cooler temperatures over the Northeast by the end of next week
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Have a great night!
Steve Copertino
Good Evening!
Today was likely the last in the series of nice warm fall days that we have managed to string together over the past five days or so. Mots of the day was rather calm and clear with winds out of the south/southeast, bringing in more moist dewpoints into the area. With mid level temperatures rising ahead of a strong mid level trough located in the central part of the country, we were able to get temperatures to rise into the lower to middle 70’s this afternoon-which is slightly above normal for this time of year. As we progressed into the late afternoon and early evening, mid level clouds began to increase substantially as the vigorous mid level system that we have been talking about since last week began to intensify and pivot towards the east. As of this evening, heavy showers were located in portions of the Mid Atlantic states, and reaching into western Pennsylvania. This heavy shower activity is being fueled by a strong upper level jet in conjunction with an impressive low level jet, working to transport deep tropical moisture northward into the East. As we continue into the night tonight, this activity will likely continue to gradually move northeast, and eventually make its way into eastern Pennsylvania around 5am or so. By this time, moisture transport from the source region of the Caribbean will be maximized, and the upper level jet over-top this anomalous moisture will be to expand and promote surface convergence, which will promote heavy/intense rainfall to develop. High resolution model guidance disagrees on the exact evolution of these features, but signs point to possible low-topped convection forming over eastern Pennsylvania and quickly heading northeast into the NY metro.
Radar and surface observations from around the Northeast and Mid Atlantic states showing the vigorous Pacific system finally getting ready to impact the region with heavy rain and strong winds.
This area of heavy showers with embedded convection will have the potential to produce very heavy rain, gusty winds, and localized road flooding due to leaves clogging areas of poor drainage as it heads northeast. As this activity moves onward, the stout mid level jet will be strengthening through the morning hours, and this will help to promote strong, gusty winds in the 30-50mph range even outside of the strongest area of activity. These winds could easily take down small tree limbs that still have leaves on them and could possibly cause localized power outages. For this reason, the NWS has issued numerous Wind Advisorys for the Northeast. The bulk of the activity should be located just west of New Jersey by 8-9am, and we may see renewed activity begin to form from the south over the Atlantic and possibly move inland over New Jesery and Long Island. Eventually, this activity looks to become focused along a frontal system that will likely be set up just to the east of New York City by later in the day on Tuesday. This activity will have the same very moist precipitable water feed that the morning activity had, as well the strong mid-upper level winds, so very heavy rain and strong, gusty winds will also be possible along with some rumbles of thunder mixed in as well. This frontal system will likely be slow to move later in the day tomorrow, and we could see training of showers and thunderstorms over the same regions, which would put areas that see multiple rounds of rain under a heightened threat for flooding.
Isolated locations on Long Island could see upwards of 2-4″ of rain, with a very sharp gradient on the east and west side due to the northward movement of the showers and thunderstorms. It is also important to note that we will have to watch any organized thunderstorms moving off the ocean for possible tornado/waterspout activity, as there may be just enough low level turning to support a brief/weak spin-up along the NJ/LI coasts.
This afternoons RPM model showing the evolution of the heavy rain and wind threat tomorrow afternoon/evening
Wednesday and Beyond
After this first system, high pressure looks to build in behind the exiting upper level trough, which should help to bring in much cooler temperatures and low humidity courtesy of a fresh Canadian airmass. This should allow temperatures to become quite seasonable across the region, with highs likely staying the upper 50’s to middle 60’s for the remainder of the week. Conditions should also become quite calm as well, with mainly sunny conditions expected. Each night should feature fair to excellent conditions for radiational cooling to take place, so expect overnight low temperatures to drop down into the middle 30’s to low 40’s, with some areas likely seeing another round of patchy frost-with the best chance being on Thursday.
After this bout of calmer weather, we then turn our attention back to the Pacific northwest as another vigorous mid level system crashes into the West coast. This system will gradually move into the central part of the country by the end of the work week, and should likely phase with another piece of mid level energy located over the southern Plains. As the energy consolidates and begins to strengthen, it will begin to deepen a trough over the eastern third of the country, which will once again draw up a very impressive amount of tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. This mid level system will likely be much more impressive than this current one, as it should have enough cold air on the back side of the trough to potentially drop a good amount of snow on the northern tier of the country. This storm system will likely track into the Great Lakes region by Saturday afternoon, but the models show a potential wild card to this forecast. Due to the enhanced convection over the Caribbean and Gulf from the strong Madden-Jullien Oscillation pulse over the area, we could potentially see some kind of tropical system become tangled up with the cold front draped over the southeast US. As the front heads east towards our area, we could see copious amounts of rain from the tropical system riding the front up the east coast, but this will likely change and will be highly dependent on just where the front sets up. Regardless, there is a heightened potential for a cool and stormy weekend ahead, and we will have further updates on this system during the week!
This afternoons European Ensembles already showing a high probability of 1″ or greater of rain for this weekend
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Have a great night!
Steve Copertino