Posts

John Homenuk

Pleasant weather in control this weekend

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After a weeks worth of unsettled weather, including prolific rains which ended as the 10th wettest day ever at New York City, the upcoming stretch of more pleasant weather will certainly be welcomed with open arms. Despite an elongating upper level low to our north, Friday will be the start of the generally pleasant stretch of weather. Behind a cold front, dry westerly winds will alleviate any precipitation concerns. High temperatures will still be able to rebound into the upper 60s — making for a pleasant day with a mix of clouds and sun.

The upcoming weekend days look to feature a very similar mix of sun and clouds. The upper level energy, elongated and meandering to our north, will allow for the chances of showers and possibly a rumble of thunder during the afternoon on Saturday and Sunday. But these showers and storms won’t be “organized” per se, and will weaken with the loss of daytime heating. High temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s will feel refreshingly good, so the showers shouldn’t be too much of a nuisance.

Visible satellite imagery showing partly cloudy skies in the area Friday morning.

Visible satellite imagery showing partly cloudy skies in the area Friday morning.

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John Homenuk

Major cold front will bring rain, wind and temperature drop

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The warm, sunny weather of the past several days is on the way out. Although our area has experienced several cold fronts over the past few weeks, none have come with quite the vigor which Tuesday’s front will. Northwesterly winds behind the front, a strong mid and upper level system, and a fresh supply (seasonally speaking) of Canadian air will all accompany the frontal boundary. Southerly winds continued this morning ahead of the front, with a broad area of heavy rain lingering just off to our west. The winds are expected to pick up as the afternoon draws on.

Along the frontal zone, an impressive thermal gradient will exist later this afternoon. Forecast models indicate the potential for a 25-30 degree temperature drop during the evening. Widespread heavy rain is expected to be accompanied by embedded thunderstorms, which could drop over 1″ of rain throughout a majority of the area. Making matters worse (or more dramatic, depending on how you look at it) is the potential for strong winds, nested just above the surface, to mix down in this heavier precipitation. Forecast models indicate the potential for wind gusts of 30 to 40 miles per hour as the front passes.

A strong cold front will approach the area this afternoon, with a dramatic temperature gradient.

A strong cold front will approach the area this afternoon, with a dramatic temperature gradient.

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John Homenuk

Cooler, drier weather behind cold front

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Warm, humid air with showers and thunderstorms were the main characteristics of the airmass on Saturday — but a distinct cold front moved through the area later on Saturday evening and the airmass has changed dramatically since then. Winds shifted from southerly to west-northwesterly by late Saturday evening into Sunday morning, and temperatures in the mid levels will drop even more considerably Sunday morning. Although overnight temperatures won’ t be frigid (especially in comparison to what we were dealing with 5 days ago), highs on Sunday will only reach into the mid 40’s, considerably cooler than Saturday.

Fair weather will be the main weather story through early week, despite the potential for a few showers on Monday. Sunday looks quiet, with around average temperatures and a westerly breeze. With no precipitation or hazards expected, it will be a sufficient close to a weekend which had only featured unsettled and dreary conditions to this point.

NAM model forecasting high temperatures in the mid 40's on Sunday afternoon.

NAM model forecasting high temperatures in the mid 40’s on Sunday afternoon.

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John Homenuk

PM Update: Winter weather set to impact the area

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A strong cold front, which crossed the region earlier today, is ushering in a much colder airmass — and a record breaking arctic airmass to the Central and Western United States. A developing disturbance along the front will touch off more precipitation in our area later this evening into Saturday. The dramatic cold front has not yet delivered arctic air to the East Coast, but the arctic gates have opened over much of the Midwest, Northwest and North-Central United States.

Some fascinating numbers evidencing the strength of the cold front include:

1) A minimum temperature reading of 28 degrees in NW Mississippi, and a maximum temperature reading of 84 degrees in SE Mississippi.

2) Temperatures in the upper single digits and lower teens as far south as Oklahoma, Texas, and Arkansas, where several inches of snow has fallen.

3) A minimum temperature reading of -23 degrees in Montana, and a maximum temperature reading of 87 degrees in Florida. A 110-degree temperature gradient across the country!

RAP analysis on Friday evening, showing a dramatic cold front over the Eastern US and an arctic airmass over the Central and Western US.

RAP analysis on Friday evening, showing a dramatic cold front over the Eastern US and an arctic airmass over the Central and Western US.

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