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John Homenuk

Update: Freeze possible in area suburbs this week

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Wednesday AM Update: A weak coastal storm passing offshore, on a frontal boundary which crossed the area last night, is helping to develop some showers along the coast of New Jersey and along the shores of Long Island. The system will move quickly seaward today, owing to a fast and progressive pattern aloft. Temperatures this morning, away from the coast, fell into the 30s and 40s. Highs will reach only the mid 50s.

It is once the storm system passes, that west-northwesterly winds will begin in earnest — and they will usher in the coldest air of the year to date. Low temperatures on Wednesday Night into Thursday morning may fall into the lower 30s across the interior and 40s even in the city and urban areas. This would likely suffice for the first freeze of the year for many interior locations. But more notably in terms of sensible weather, high temperatures will only reach the mid 50s each day later this week, with a blustery wind expected. It will certainly feel more like autumn than it has at any point so far this year.

The NWS has issued a Freeze Warning for Sussex County in NW NJ from 2:00 to 9:00am Thursday morning. Frost Advisories also in effect for Somerset, Morris, Hunterdon, Passaic, Bergen (NJ) Rockland, Putnam (NY) and Fairfield, New Haven (CT).

NAM model showing cold temperatures at 850mb moving into much of the Northern and Eastern US by Thursday.

NAM model showing cold temperatures at 850mb moving into much of the Northern and Eastern US by Thursday.

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John Homenuk

Forecast: Unsettled, cooler pattern not far away

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Despite the fact that pleasant weather has essentially dominated late summer and Autumn thus far, the pattern of late has trended a bit more unsettled. This is fairly typical for this time of year, as the first signs of wavelength changes are beginning to be seen in the atmospheric pattern and jet stream. However, a more dramatic pattern change is being forecast by most models in the medium range — with noticeable wave amplification throughout the Northern Hemisphere. In the short term, unsettled weather will begin to impact the area as early as Wednesday with a weak system meandering offshore beginning to back towards a coast slightly. Another frontal system back to our west will eventually approach and cross the area around mid-week, bringing in the first of several shots of cooler air.

NAM model showing multiple disturbances in the mid levels (500mb) of the atmosphere later this week.

NAM model showing multiple disturbances in the mid levels (500mb) of the atmosphere later this week.

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John Homenuk

Front passes, coastal low threatens late week

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Cooler, less humid and more crisp air settled into the area on Tuesday behind a strong cold front which steamed through on Monday evening. The humidity and instability on Monday, which helped lead to strong to severe thunderstorms and a few damaging wind reports in New Jersey and New York, was a distant memory as it was swept seaward with the frontal passage. The new airmass is characterized by a large high pressure system, which stretches from the Mississippi Valley to Northern Maine and into parts of Canada. Pleasant, fall-like weather is expected on both Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the upper 60’s to near 70 and chilly evenings and mornings.

A wrinkle in the forecast later this week is the development of a coastal storm system, which forecast models have been hinting at for several days. A weak mid level disturbance (the remnants of TS Karen) shifting northeastward will eventually track near the Mid-Atlantic Coast, developing a weak surface low offshore. The north/northwestward extent of the storm system, and associated precipitation shield, remains in question — and has significant impacts on our areas forecast. A farther northwest track would mean the potential for more significant rain in our area, while a weaker or farther southwest track (as a result of the strong high pressure holding its ground over New England), would mean unsettled weather but no heavy flooding rains.

NAM model showing an offshore coastal low producing unsettled weather and periods of rain throughout the area on Friday.

NAM model showing an offshore coastal low producing unsettled weather and periods of rain throughout the area on Friday

Regardless of the systems eventual track, unsettled weather looks likely to return by the tail end of this week beginning on Thursday with increasing clouds and a chance of showers. Periods of rain are likely, especially along the coast, from Thursday through Saturday — and depending on the northward progression of the system, the rain may be steady or heavy at times. Stay tuned for further details, and refining of the forecast, as we approach the event.

John Homenuk

Wind, severe weather possible Monday

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With the streak of pleasant weather now officially over, the forecast takes a bit of a turn from unsettled to hazardous on Monday. A warm front moving north through Central NJ late Sunday Night into Monday will bring a more warm and humid airmass, while a cold front swings towards the area from the west. As the warm front pushes north of the area, the atmosphere will become more unstable — and likely supportive of thunderstorms. Favorable shear in the mid and low levels will help storm organization, and a line of thunderstorms is expected to push towards the area later Monday. Strong winds just above the surface may even mix down with daytime heating — making for quite a breezy day even before thunderstorms arrive.

NAM model forecasting a line of showers and thunderstorms moving through the area Monday afternoon and early evening.

NAM model forecasting a line of showers and thunderstorms moving through the area Monday afternoon and early evening.

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