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Here’s why a cold, wintry pattern will continue

We know, it’s been relentless. But we warned you of this. The past two to four weeks have featured a near constant parade of storm systems with winter weather, as well as bitter cold both during the systems and surrounding them. The pattern has been “locked and loaded” as meteorologists like to say. The atmosphere has settled into a routine, and it’s one that continues to dislodge arctic air farther south than usual while maintaining an active jet stream of energy. This has resulted in countless chances for snow with a train of storm systems moving across the country into very cold air. In terms of snowfall, New England has benefited the most — many weather stations are running toward all time snowfall records.

A breakdown and overview of the hemispheric setup offers us some clues as to why this pattern has become so relentless, and why it’s likely to continue for at least another 7 to 10 days before any hint of moderation. As meteorologists, long term forecasting is rarely as straightforward as “colder than normal with the potential for snow”. But the next 7-10 days offer just that.

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Arctic cold, multiple chances for snow through next week

We don’t have it as bad as Boston. Yet, multiple freezing rain and winter weather events have made their way through our region over the past several weeks just the same. Freezing rain, sleet and snow have become mainstay’s in the weekly weather. And the repetitive pattern has many wondering when winter will finally end. Unfortunately, that does not look to be any time soon. While not everything in our current weather pattern screams in support of a major snowstorm, there are widespread indications that arctic cold and multiple chances for Nor’Easters will show their face from late this week into next week.

Both time periods will be evolving remarkably similarly aloft. Over the next few days, a large mid and upper level ridge will begin amplifying on the west coast of the United States, and  powerful shortwaves with potent energy will be diving down from Canada on the eastern periphery of that ridging. The first potential event, this coming Thursday into Friday, looks likely to remain progressive enough for our area to avoid significant snowfall. While the pattern is amplified in the mid levels, it remains slightly progressive — without any high latitude blocking to slow things down. As a result, the developing surface low looks likely to slip just far enough east.

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Cold, active winter pattern will continue

Whether your area got hammered or only moderately brushed by the Blizzard of 2015, it is clear that the pattern has finally truly shifted towards a cold and snowy regime. This month has generally featured -3F temperature departures with above average to much above average snowfall for the region. While it is not a lock that a lot more snow is in the immediate future, the cold and active weather will continue. This means that there will be a few chances of snow, but does not guarantee anything.

The main feature that has continually supplied our cold air this month is a large amount of ridging over the Pacific. The location of this ridging has ranged from  Alaska to British Columbia including the west coast/western half of the US. These help to favor troughing downstream, or in the Eastern US. Particularly, when the ridging extends far enough north to poke through the British Columbia and into Alaska, you can somewhat displace the Polar Vortex to the south, which creates a nice cold air source to our north for winter storms. This was part of the pattern that preceded the Blizzard, and this part of the pattern looks to generally continue.

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Light snow today, near zero temperatures Thursday

For the winter lovers out there, the only thing currently missing on the checklist is a solid snow pack. Light snow will fall during the remainder of the morning and afternoon on Tuesday, bringing light accumulations to the majority of the area. As a clipper system shifts eastward, the snow will eventually wrap up from west to east Tuesday afternoon and evening — but not before snow squalls move through the area as well. This will leave a bittery cold and somewhat snowy scene throughout the area. Temperatures Tuesday evening will fall into the teens — and highs on Tuesday afternoon will only be in the lower 20’s.

While accumulations are expected to be light, roads may still become slick and slippery. The snow will accumulate fairly easily. We anticipate some travel delays due to this, so leave some extra time if you’re going to be commuting this morning or even this afternoon and evening. The main story, after the snow wraps up, will become the bitter cold which will surge into the area during the middle part of this week.

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