Posts

John Homenuk

4.25 PM Zones: Rain continues, warmer times ahead

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Scattered showers with embedded heavy downpours have impacted a large majority of the area this morning, and will continue to do so during the early afternoon hours. Forecast models and regional observations are aligned in the idea that an area of steadier, heavier rain will begin to approach the region this afternoon. The rain may be torrential at times, with rapid rainfall amounts leading to localized flooding.

This rainfall will be occurring as a result of a strengthening low level jet, or the movement of air in the lower levels of the atmosphere. The strong low level jet is associated with a strong system aloft, passing along the East Coast today. The low level jet will transport moisture into the region rapidly, and enhance lift to help develop precipitation from southeast to northwest during the early to mid afternoon.

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Miguel Pierre

Premium Weekly Outlook: A cut-off low brings unsettled weather and rainfall

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So far this month, while there have been cool shots, we’ve seen warmer than normal temperatures dominate for a longer period. It has also been quite dry. But more seasonable temperatures and unsettled weather is looking likely for this weekly period overall. So much-needed rainfall may also be on the way, especially for Long Island which is currently under a severe drought.

Today has gotten of to a chilly start with temperatures in the 40s over most of the region. Some interior locations and the Pine Barrens dropped down into the middle to upper 30s with some pockets of frost. Sunshine will dominate much of the day and it will be pleasant Autumn afternoon overall. But some clouds will begin increasing later this afternoon, as a frontal boundary associated with a closed upper-level over Great Lakes begins approaching the region. Temperatures will still reach the upper 60s to lower 70s across most of the region.

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John Homenuk

Pleasant, but fire danger through Friday

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Calm weather has settled into the area during the middle part of this week in the wake of a cold front, but gusty winds have ramped up over the last 12 to 24 hours with a tightening pressure gradient over the area. Blustery northwest winds led in a surface high pressure on Wednesday Night, as a low pressure system deepened well off to our north and east. The northwest winds and very low humidity are leading to concern for brush fire spread throughout the area. Subsequently, the National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag Warning for much of the area — save for Long Island, where higher humidity values are present near the coasts.

A Red Flag Warning is issued by the National Weather Service when high winds and low humidity are expected to make conditions favorable for dangerous and rapid spread of brush fires if ignition occurs. Despite the concern for fire spread, pleasant weather will continue — albeit a bit cool of this time of year. Highs in the lower 60’s will be common on Thursday and Friday before a disturbance approaches with a period of rain expected Friday Night.

Very low dew points and gusty winds could cause rapid fire spread today.

Very low dew points and gusty winds could cause rapid fire spread today.

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Pleasant pattern will come to an end next week

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[alert type=”info”]Don’t Forget! The Eta Aquarid meteor shower peaks Saturday Night through Sunday Morning. Good viewing conditions are expected with clear skies. Up to 30 meteors per hour possible. Let us know if you see any![/alert]

Blocking patterns often produce anomalous weather somewhere in the United States — and frequently, it occurs in the Eastern 1/3 of the United States. Not this time. The blocking pattern, which became anomalous late this past week, drove a cutoff low into the Central United States that produced an amazing late-season snowfall across parts of the United States. The unsettled weather, however, has remained over the Central United States thus far and has not made much progress to the east — as the block has actually collapsed overhead and high pressure in association with it has settled over the Northeast US.

This will change next week. Until then, however, a few more days of pleasant weather can be expected through the weekend and into early next week. The game changer will occur once the decaying cutoff low, once responsible for historic late season snow over the Central US, drifts up the Eastern seaboard. Forecast models are in good agreement that it will bring increased chances of showers and thunderstorms as well as cooler temperatures. In addition, a slightly cooler and more unsettled pattern looks likely through the medium to long term forecast period.

For a day-by-day breakdown of the forecast, check out our Forecast Brief. If you’re looking to get more details and technical reasoning, check out our Technical Forecast Discussion. Have a great Saturday night!