Posts

John Homenuk

Warmth on borrowed time as January pattern change looms

/by

Old man winter may finally be waking up. After a December which, to this point, has featured historically warm temperatures and an overall lack of snow, a well anticipated pattern change now looks increasingly likely to play out during the middle part of January. In fact, forecast models suggest the pattern change is already underway, and the effects of it may be felt a bit earlier than anticipated when we released our Winter Forecast back in early November.

The atmosphere is already undergoing significant changes which will have a tremendous impact on the sensible weather in our area within about two weeks time. Most interesting of all? Those changes are beginning (and are currently most notable) thousands of miles away, in part of the Arctic Ocean north of Sibera known as the Kara Sea. That’s not all, however, a myriad of hemispheric changes are expected over the next few weeks.

Read more

Miguel Pierre

Interior wintry weather expected on Tuesday morning

/by

Skies will remain mostly cloudy through this afternoon and evening, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Despite the cloudcover, a deep west-southwest flow will help temperatures will rise into the lower to middle 60s. A cold front will slowly move through the region with some scattered showers late this afternoon and early tonight. Precipitable water values near 1.25 to 1.50″ could support some heavy downpours with these showers.

A much colder airmass will follow behind this front late tonight and tomorrow, as a strong Canadian high pressure starts to build into the Northeast. Temperatures will drop into 30s for most areas by dawn. Cold air will continue to advect into region during the day tomorrow, on light north to northeast winds. Model soundings indicate mixing to 900mb-925mb where temperatures are -6C to -8C. Despite some sunshine, temperatures will slowly rise into the upper 30s to lower 40s for highs tomorrow afternoon. These temperatures are seasonal for this time of year.

Read more

John Homenuk

Long Range: First wintry threat possible for interior next week

/by

Record breaking warmth occurred throughout the area today, with high temperatures in the lower 70’s shattering previous high temperature records by nearly 10 degrees. In fact, New York City reached their record high temperature at 12:01am, breaking the previous record for Christmas Eve set back in 1990. This is no small feat — temperatures averaged almost 30 degrees above normal throughout the day in our forecast area.

In the midst of an incredibly warm, snowless pattern, forecast models suggest the potential for a trend-breaker during the middle of next week. Within a fast, warm mid level atmospheric flow, models are indicating the potential for a slower moving, closed low in the mid levels of the atmosphere. As this low shifts eastward through the Mississippi Valley and eventually de-amplifies toward the Northeast US, the potential exists for significant amounts of moisture to be drawn northward toward the Northeast US. Waiting to our north, precariously timed — as models suggest — will be a strong and cold Canadian high pressure system.

Read more

John Homenuk

Central Park Conservancy will take over snowfall measurements

/1 Comment/by

The National Weather Service announced today that the Central Park Conservancy will take over measuring snowfall during the winter of 2015-2016. This marks and end of a 22-year run for the Central Park Zoo, where snowfall has been measured since 1993. The National Weather Service trained 20 or more individual employees at the Central Park Conservancy over the past several months in order to make the transition as easy as possible, and to improve accuracy of snowfall reporting in New York City.

Read more