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John Homenuk

The latest on Hurricane Matthew and his uncertain fate

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Hurricane Matthew continues to churn in the Caribbean this morning, and after briefly obtaining Category 5 strength this weekend, has steadily maintained Category 4 strength with winds near 145 miles per hour. Matthew was the first Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean in 9 years, making the storm significant in its own right before it made any landfall. But exactly where the storm tracks over the next several days will determine its legacy — and some forecast models continue to suggest that we may remember the storm for a landfall on U.S soil.

The pattern dictating where Matthew goes, however, is complicated. As it stands this morning, steering currents around Matthew are quite weak. They’ve been that way for a few days now, and not surprisingly Matthew has lingered, wobbled, and meandered in the warm waters of the Central Caribbean. He will begin a notable northward turn today, however, and as he moves northward toward more favorable mid and upper level winds, the storm is expected to pass dangerously close to the islands of Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba. Forecast models currently suggest Matthew is most likely to track on the Eastern Shores of Cuba before re-emerging into the borderline hot waters of the Bahamas.

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Blocking sends disturbance south from Greenland

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High latitude blocking, which we discussed earlier this week as an important predictor in summer temperature patterns around our area, is at it again. A large and anomalous blocking ridge, building north from Canada towards the higher latitudes into Newfoundland and Southeastern Greenland, is forcing a disturbance and upper level low to shift southward. The disturbance will track southward today — and can be seen on water vapor and visible satellite imagery early this afternoon. The feature won’t directly impact our area, nor will it cause any widespread unsettled weather on the east coast, but it could reinforce east/southeasterly winds as it passes later this week.

The track of the disturbance is the most unusual. To see an upper level low or disturbance track southward from Greenland all the way to a point just a few hundred miles off of the US East Coast is exceedingly rare. However, one glance at the blocking pattern aloft tells you the story — the disturbance had nowhere else to go, being forced into a small window between the trough over the Atlantic and the blocking ridge to the west over Canada. (Click read more for more imagery).

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