Significant winter weather event possible next week
Forecast models have come into much better agreement regarding a storm system which is forecast to impact the area early next week. Several days ago we mentioned in a blog post that the next significant precipitation event wouldn’t come until early this coming week — and that idea continues. A powerhouse upper level trough will slam into the West Coast over the next day or two, providing much needed rains. But more interestingly for us, the associated energy will de-amplify somewhat, but eject northeastward towards the Tennessee and Mississippi Valleys. As a result, a surface low pressure system will develop from the Arkaltex towards the Mid Atlantic coast.
To our north, a piece of the Polar Vortex will be meandering in Southeast Canada, maintaining an impressive low level cold air source. The result of the ejecting shortwave and cold air to the north will be an impressive thermal gradient and stalled frontal boundary, which will extend from the Central US towards the Mid Atlantic. Along this thermal gradient, a plume of moisture is forecast to develop in response to enhanced lift from the aforementioned disturbance. Accordingly, areas to the north of this thermal gradient (including much of our forecast area) will be in line for a potentially significant winter weather event.