Winter is not over…yet.
Forecast model guidance is in good agreement that the weather pattern will trend much warmer in the Eastern United States from late February into early March. Temperatures could rise well above normal starting late next week, offering us yet another taste spring – is it real, or do we have another “fake spring” on our hands?
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A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for New York City from 4am to 6pm Tuesday. Heavy snow and gusty winds are expected, with snowfall totals of 4 to 8 inches likely and locally higher amounts possible.
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A near-tropical airmass has settled into the region over the past few days, with high dew points and temperatures in the 80’s creating uncomfortably sticky conditions. This airmass, most notably, was a major factor in the flooding rains and thunderstorms over parts of Northeast New Jersey on Wednesday. While much of the area saw little rain, isolated locations saw totals upwards of one inch, with isolated spots receiving more. Training thunderstorms produced 6.24″ of rainfall in less than 3 hours in Mountainside, NJ.
Today, the airmass will remain warm and humid with a southeasterly flow in the low levels continuing to draw in air off the ocean waters. The best forcing for thunderstorm development will remain back to our west, but a few isolated storms cannot be ruled out. These will, again, be capable of producing extremely heavy rain. The frontal boundary associated with this storm system won’t actually cross the region until Friday afternoon. Here are some highlights from around the meteorological community:
For the greater part of the past month, the weather has featured below normal temperatures with occasional precipitation — and much of the same will continue. We’ve experienced two or more “significant” winter weather events, but for now, the pattern looks to continue to feature the aforementioned cold temperatures while significant precipitation events tend to avoid our area. Although this will eventually change when the amplitude of the trough axis over the Northeast US decreases somewhat, we’re not expecting much of a change in the forthcoming work week.
Monday, a system passes to our north with the low pressure center actually tracking through Northern New England. A cold front will approach our area by the afternoon hours and west winds will usher in another cold airmass. The only other noteworthy weather event in the coming week will be a southern stream disturbance which will slide off the Southeast Coast. But forecast models are in good agreement on the fact that the developing surface low will head seaward — well too far south and east of our area for any impacts in terms of sensible weather. Some light precipitation may ultimately graze the area coasts should the track of the storm end up farther north and west of current guidance.
GFS model indicating a low pressure system passing off the coast on Wednesday — too far south and east for impacts in our area.
Super Bowl event should be light, but may feature mixed precipitation: In a similar fashion to the parade of clipper systems which we have experienced over the past few weeks, forecast models are indicating a pattern change which will allow for frequent precipitation events emerging from the south and west of our forecast area. The first looks to impact the area during the upcoming weekend — in fact from Saturday into Sunday — and may impact the Super Bowl and associated activities.
That being said, guidance is still very inconsistent with timing and precipitation impacts. The general idea, however, is for a low pressure system to shift front the MS Valley into the Northeast US. What remains uncertain is how quickly it does so, and how much warm air advection pushes north through our area. This will determine when the heaviest precipitation falls, and whether it falls as frozen precipitation or the warm air takes over and results in rain.
Over the next few days we will feature the super bowl forecast for free in each of our daily posts, with updates on the latest information.