Hurricane Harvey Midday Update: Devastating Impacts Expected in South Texas
About six days ago, our forecasting team got together to discuss the possibility of tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico. After some debate, we decided to push an update out to clients that detailed the potential for Harvey — then an open wave — to regenerate into a tropical storm again and pose a threat to the Gulf Coast, perhaps reaching minimal hurricane strength. However, we never could have imagined, at the time, that the situation would become this dire or significant, as Harvey rapidly intensified from a tropical depression into a category 2/3 borderline hurricane over the past 24-36 hours. It’s usually quite difficult for an open wave to rapidly intensify after days of weakening over the Yucatan Peninsula. But Harvey defied those odds, which will result in devastating impacts.
Hurricane Harvey continued to strengthen slowly this morning, with the pressure slowly dropping into the 940mbs. As of 11am maximum sustained winds were still at 110mph, just underneath Category 3 strength. The hurricane continues to move north-northwest with outer rain bands now reaching the Texas Coast, with some tropical storm force winds. Harvey is expected to continue to intensify today into a major hurricane, while it moves over very warm sea-surface temperatures and heat content over the Western Gulf of Mexico, with a continued very favorable mid-upper atmosphere for strengthening.