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Hot & Humid

Mostly dry Fourth of July, humid conditions return!

Good afternoon!

Warm and mostly dry conditions continue to dominate much of our sensible weather. While the 4th of July looks to stay relatively dry for our area, warmer temps and more humid conditions are likely. Finally, unsettled conditions are likely to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms by Saturday.

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Heavy rain possible tonight, upper level low lingers

Good evening and happy Friday!

A large upper level low that is currently over the Southeast US looks to plague our sensible weather with multiple chances of rain throughout the holiday weekend!

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Rain Exits Tonight, Active New Year’s Week Ahead

Good evening!

As expected, today has been yet another dreary and rainy Friday for much of the East Coast. In fact, this has been the third Friday in a row that has featured heavy rain and mild temperatures. Unfortunately, that streak looks to continue, but we will have more on that later.

As of 5 pm, most of the left-over heavy rain was located just off the New Jersey coast and gradually moving to the east/northeast. While most of the metro area will begin to see precipitation tapper off from west to east in the next few hours, portions of eastern Long Island will likely see periods of moderate to heavy rain until the early evening hours. Stout southwesterly flow has been over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast since early this morning, and temperatures have since been able to shoot up into the middle to upper 50’s across much of the area- with even some 60 degree readings showing up over portions of southern New Jersey. Needless to say, these highs are well-above normal for this time of year, with readings coming in anywhere from 18-24 degrees above-normal!

Mild temperatures and the chance for a light shower or two will last well into the overnight hours tonight as the cold front associated with this system lags well off to the west over the Ohio Valley. Lows tonight will be very mild, with temperatures staying in the middle to upper 40’s for much of the area. Temperatures across southern New Jersey could stay well into the 50’s into the early morning hours of Saturday.

In addition to the chance for some leftover showers this evening, low-level moisture will also contribute to some foggy conditions across the region before more windy conditions take over. Please use caution while traveling tonight, as some locations could see locally dense fog.

7-day forecast

~Updated Weekly Planner~

Cold Front Finally Arrives Saturday, Another Storm Develops Late Sunday

Saturday will likely start off rather mild across much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast as a cold front to our west slowly limps towards our area. High temperatures will likely be reached during the early morning hours, with readings likely reaching the middle to upper 40’s–with 50’s possible closer to the coast. Leftover low-level moisture will likely contribute to partly cloudy skies during the days, but should gradually decrease as we head into the late afternoon and evening hours. The much-anticipated cold front will finally move through our area by 3-5 pm, which should feature increasing winds, sharply falling temperatures, and decreasing dewpoints. These gusty winds and decreasing temperatures will last into the evening and overnight hours, with lows getting back down towards seasonable levels. Expect temperatures to bottom out in the middle to upper 20’s, with lower 30’s in and around the city.

Thankfully, Sunday looks to be the “gem” of this forecast period as it will feature mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures in the middle 30’s to lower 40’s for the entire forecast area as an area of high pressure build in over the east. Mid-level flow will be increasing from the west, so we cannot rule out a few passing clouds during the day, but the overall forecast for Sunday looks quite pleasant. Unfortunately, our next storm system will be gathering out over the Southern Plains late in the day Sunday night, with showers and thunderstorms likely beginning to increase over the Arklatex region.

NAM 3km Temps

This evenings NAM model showing the progression of the weak cold front set to move through the area on Saturday

Dreary and Dismal New Year’s Eve Likely

At this time, it is unfortunately looking likely that the system that will develop over the South late Sunday and into Monday will impact the New York City area on New Year’s eve with the potential for yet another chance at heavy rain-a fitting end to one of the wettest years in record. Clouds will gradually increase during the afternoon hours on Monday as yet another strong push of southwesterly flow moves into the region. As the day progresses into the late afternoon and evening hours on Monday, the main surface low will begin to push through the Ohio Valley, with a large area of steady rain overspreading the region by 5-8 pm. Conditions will continue to gradually go downhill as a low-level jet transporting moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will be overhead by this time as well. This will set the stage for heavy rain to potentially move through the NYC area just in time for the New Year’s celebration in Times Square as temperatures begin to rise into the middle to upper 40’s. The rain should gradually begin to tapper off from west to east during the very early morning hours of Tuesday, with mild temperatures holding on throughout the night.

As if things couldn’t get any more bleak, this afternoon’s models have been keying in on yet another disturbance making its way towards our area late next week just in time for (you guessed it!) Friday. If this system were to happen the way the models show, this would be the fourth Friday in a row which featured at least moderate to heavy rain!

Details for this potential system are very hazy at this point in time, but we will continue to monitor it over the coming days!

ECMWF 6-hour Precip

This afternoons ECMWF model showing yet another heavy rain event for New Year’s eve

We hope everyone has an excellent weekend and we will have an update on the upcoming system on Monday! 

Steve Copertino

 

Southeast Ridge Builds, But Not For Long…

Good evening! 

 

Today was another relatively mild day with some decent mid-upper level cloud cover that faded throughout the day as a weak disturbance to our south quickly moved eastward. High pressure over central and eastern Canada remains in control of the weather over much of the northern tier of the United States and has prevented the northward progression of the weak disturbance over the southeast US. This same high pressure system has also ushered in a colder airmass into the mid levels of the atmosphere, with the surface temperatures lagging behind. This lag-time between the surface and mid levels has allowed highs today to reach into the lower to middle 40’s across much of the New York metro area, with some locations in southern NJ reaching into the upper 40’s. As the evening goes on, we should see clouds continue to decrease in earnest, with only a few high cirrus clouds sticking around through the night as dry air continues to sink into the Northeast. With the relatively clear conditions expected, a renewed source for cold air, and light winds, conditions this evening will become quite favorable for radiational cooling to occur over the entire Northeast. We should see lows drop a good 15-20 degrees, with readings getting into the middle to upper 20’s across most of the metro area. Low 20’s and possibly teens will also be acheiveable to the north and west of the city due to excellent radiational cooling conditions in the valleys of NY state.

Snapshot of todays weather across the Northeast with regional radar mosiac, surface observations, and 500-meter high-resolution visible satellite data from GOES 16. Note the sharp cutoff of cirrus clouds just to the south of NYC

Snapshot of todays weather across the Northeast with regional radar mosiac, surface observations, and 500-meter high-resolution visible satellite data from GOES 16. Note the sharp cutoff of cirrus clouds just to the south of NYC

Thursday Into the Holiday Weekend 

Thursday looks to start off rather cold and clear as high pressure to our north remains in control of the weather. Temperatures during the morning commute will likely start off in the middle to upper 20’s, but as the day goes on tomorrow we should see clear skies and light northerly winds result in highs heading into the lower to middle 30’s, with upper 30’s to lower 40’s possible across southern New Jersey. Downsloping winds will cause of good amount of subsidence over the region tomorrow, so expect generally dry and clear conditions for the vast majority of the day. As we head into the evening hours tomorrow, ridging ahead of a growing system out in the plains will cause heights to rise over the East, which should bring an increase in mid level moisture. Clouds should gradually increase as darkness falls tomorrow, likely becoming mostly cloudy as the night progresses. With the increase mid level heights will come a more stout southwesterly flow over the region, which will work to increase mid level temperatures. Despite a marked increase of about 5-10 degrees in the mid levels, the high pressure to our north will continue to pump colder surface air into the Northeast. This more-dense cold air should win out against any potential warm air intrusions Thursday night, so look for lows to range in the middle to upper 20’s once again, with warmer lows in the 30’s expected to the south and west.

By Friday morning, we should see a significant amount of energy in the desert southwest that should help to pump the much-talked-about “southeast ridge” over the southeast. Moisture will begin to stream in over the ridge on Friday and pool ahead of a slow-moving cold front over the Tennessee valley. Southwest flow will increase throughout the day on Friday, leading to increasing temperatures and a threat for showers during the day. It is important to note that some of the precipitation at the onset of this system may actually be in the form of sleet/freezing rain/snow across locations to the north and west of the city due to stubborn low level cold air trying to hold on. Depending on how much this cold holds on, we could see a period of a light wintry mix into the early afternoon which may cause for slippery travel conditions. Regardless, expect much of the day to be unsettled with cloudy conditions and a chance at showers. Highs will be slightly warmer over the area on Friday, with temperatures in the 40’s expected for much of the Northeast.

This afternoons NAM model showing the building mid level ridge over the central part of the country, followed by a large supply of Polar air developing over southern Canada.

This afternoons NAM model showing the building mid level ridge over the central part of the country, followed by a large supply of Polar air developing over southern Canada.

 

Holiday Weekend Outlook and Beyond! 

More rain steady rain is likely for Saturday and into Sunday before things clear out on Sunday morning. A large piece of Pacific energy will be carving out a trough in the central United States that will work to pick apart the southeast ridge. A polar airmass will then flow into the back end of this trough, which should create a tight gradient between the warmer SE ridge and the cold over the Plains. The models begin to differ late on Christmas eve when a low pressure may develop over the Tennessee valley. This afternoons European model has trended colder and more to the south and east with this low, and would bring a rather significant snowfall on Christmas day as the low rides the temperature gradient, then quickly strengthens. Some of the other model guidance places this initial temperature boundary a little farther south, which causes the bulk of the system to ride out to sea with little fanfare for the Northeast. While the details still need to be worked out quite a bit, condition’s on Christmas are looking to be colder than originally forecast with the potential of a wintry day across the Northeast. This will be looked at much closer on Friday when most of the model guidance will be in their more-reliable range.

By Tuesday, we should see the polar cold begin to bleed into the Northeast as a large high pressure system takes over much of the eastern US. This cold will be setting the stage for a potentially wintry end to 2017 as the medium range models are beginning to sniff out a potential system arriving on the west coast  by next Wednesday. There will be the potential for another Polar airmass to invade the country, with a massive high pressure system over much of southern Canada. This high pressure system over Canada would then lead to any potential system developing in the Plains states to ride generally east. This kind of track would allow precipitation to break out over a large portion of the country as moisture streams northward from the Gulf of Mexico. With Continental Polar air filtering into the Northeast, there would be a heightened threat for snow as we draw closer to the 12/27-12/31 time frame. We will also be keeping a very close eye on this period over the next couple of day and provide updates when they’re available.

 

This afternoons European Ensembles showing a potentially cold and active period coming in the next 10-15 days as mid level ridging increased over the Arctic regions.

This afternoons European Ensembles showing a potentially cold and active period coming in the next 10-15 days as mid level ridging increased over the Arctic regions.

Stay tuned for further public updates! . Also join us at 33andrain forums for free discussion on everything weather-related.

Have a great night!