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The latest on Invest 99L and a look toward its future

Good evening! During a quiet Tuesday afternoon weather-wise throughout a large majority of the Central and Eastern United States, attention has turned to the tropics. Tropical Storm Franklin continues to move towards the Yucatan and Invest 99L, a tropical wave well out in the Central Atlantic Ocean, continues a slow movement northwest. But how much of a threat do either of these systems pose to the U.S Mainland, specifically 99L?  Lets clear the air, discuss the synoptics, and shed any misconceptions about tropical threats over the next week or so.

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The latest on Hurricane Matthew and his uncertain fate

Hurricane Matthew continues to churn in the Caribbean this morning, and after briefly obtaining Category 5 strength this weekend, has steadily maintained Category 4 strength with winds near 145 miles per hour. Matthew was the first Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean in 9 years, making the storm significant in its own right before it made any landfall. But exactly where the storm tracks over the next several days will determine its legacy — and some forecast models continue to suggest that we may remember the storm for a landfall on U.S soil.

The pattern dictating where Matthew goes, however, is complicated. As it stands this morning, steering currents around Matthew are quite weak. They’ve been that way for a few days now, and not surprisingly Matthew has lingered, wobbled, and meandered in the warm waters of the Central Caribbean. He will begin a notable northward turn today, however, and as he moves northward toward more favorable mid and upper level winds, the storm is expected to pass dangerously close to the islands of Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba. Forecast models currently suggest Matthew is most likely to track on the Eastern Shores of Cuba before re-emerging into the borderline hot waters of the Bahamas.

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Hurricane Matthew’s Potential Impacts on the Caribbean and United States

Matthew unexpectedly underwent rapid intensification to category 5 hurricane on Friday. This is despite between 20-30kts southwesterly shear over the eye. Today, Matthew has slightly weakened down to category 4  hurricane. But still remains a very powerful and dangerous hurricane.  Matthew has been moving very slowly west-southwestward over the Central Caribbean. But is expected to make gradual turn northward later tonight and Sunday. This will take the eye somewhere between Jamaica, Eastern Cuba and Haiti Bahamas by Monday. Then somewhere over the Bahamas by Tuesday and Wednesday. So will Matthew turn towards the United States or will go out to sea? Well alot depends how it interacts with incoming trough and how strong the ridge is over the Western Atlantic.

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The meteorology, and stats, behind the 2015 Hurricane Season

Meteorological Winter began today, and the 2015 Hurricane Season officially ended yesterday, marking a transition in seasons — and the attention of meteorologists worldwide. While the season will be remembered for a few more significant storms, the overall season in the Atlantic was quiet. There were 11 named storms and one more tropical depression. Four of those named storms became hurricanes and two of those became major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). The number of named  storms is actually about average for Atlantic hurricane seasons between 1966-2009. But the number of hurricanes is below the average of 6 for the season. Only two storms made landfall in the in the United States: An early season tropical storm named Ana over North Carolina in May, and then Tropical Storm Bill over Texas in June. There hasn’t been a major hurricane landfall in the United States since Hurricane Wilma in 2005 — which is now 10 years ago.

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