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John Homenuk

Fourth of July forecast takes ugly turn

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Yesterday, our forecasters were debating whether or not clouds would be a significant issue on the Fourth of July. Today, we have bigger problems to deal with. Forecast models have trended farther north with a surface low pressure system, which is expected to move from the Mid Atlantic States to a position southeast of Long island on Saturday. This low pressure system, associated with a mid level atmospheric disturbance, will promote the development of showers and areas of steady rain, which will progress through the area on Saturday.

Models, still, are wildly inconsistent with the areas of steadiest rain and more focused development of showery activity. What we do know, at this point, is that the surface low pressure system will promote widespread clouds from Friday Night into Saturday morning. We’ll put it to you this way: You won’t exactly wake up on Independence Day ready to run outside in shorts and fire up the grill. East winds and low clouds will keep things feeling much cooler, and showers will be meandering around the area as well.

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John Homenuk

Fourth Forecast: Clouds possible, but not a certainty

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Summers most loved holiday is almost here — and most already have their American Flags and sparklers ready. The weather, however, may not be so eager to cooperate. We’ll start with the good news: Medium range forecast models which had been showing a total washout for Independence Day have since backed off. The bad news? It still looks like an onshore flow will promote the development of low clouds and the intrusion of a marine layer, at least early in the day.

What will become interesting is forecasting both the erosion of that marine layer by the afternoon and evening hours, and the potential for a weak coastal storm system to scoot on by to our south and east. This looks most likely to occur on the night of July 3rd (Friday) into Independence Day morning, as a low pressure system develops in the Ohio Valley and then transfer offshore to the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Sheesh — you’d almost think this were a mid-winter forecast!

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John Homenuk

TD1 expected to skirt East Coast on Independence Day

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A developing tropical system is expected to shift northwestward toward the Southeast US coast over the next 24 hours, strengthening from a Tropical Depression into a Tropical Storm at some point during this week. This, almost all forecast models agree upon. What happens thereafter is another story. From Thursday morning forward, there is a considerable amount of spread amongst usually reliable guidance, as the tropical system will shift northeastward along the Mid-Atlantic states of the East Coast. Eventually, an incoming trough and shortwave will kick the tropical system to the north and east, but the timing of this depends highly on the positioning of said feature during the latter half of this week.

This means that our fourth of July forecast is up in the air — and at risk of being spoiled by tropical rains. Adding to the issue is the potential for rain along the front, even if the Tropical Storm is hundreds of miles to our east. We can thank extra lift from the incoming troughing system for this, and many models are picking up on the potential for heavy rain along this band of lift from Thursday Night into Friday. After that, the track of the exact low pressure center would obviously have more significant impacts on our weather.

Forecast track of Tropical Depression 1.

Forecast track of Tropical Depression 1.

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