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John Homenuk

Wednesday Forecast: One more splendid day

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Northeast surface analysis from the morning of July 31, 2013 showing high pressure controlling the weather pattern for one more day, but moisture approaching from the southtwest.

Northeast surface analysis from the morning of July 31, 2013 showing high pressure controlling the weather pattern for one more day, but moisture approaching from the southwest.

The first half of this current work week has given us the best summer has to offer. Clear blue skies, low humidity, and near-average temperatures with highs reaching the low to middle 80’s throughout the area. The low humidity, in particular, has kept temperatures feeling comfortable and the air feeling crisp. Much of the same will be true on Wednesday, as a high pressure system hangs on for one more day before slipping off the coast and weakening. High clouds will stream in during the later part of the morning into the afternoon, with some mid and lower clouds possible by the end of the day. Generally, however, pleasant weather will persist.

The mid and high clouds are the first sign of an approaching disturbance which will affect the area on Thursday. A warm front and associated low pressure system will move towards the area by Thursday morning and afternoon, bringing with it a high likelihood of showers and periods of rain as well as an increased chance of thunderstorms. Most noticeably, the humidity will rise and the winds will pick up out of the east-southeast, especially in any stronger storms.

Stay tuned for the latest on the approaching storm system, but first be sure to enjoy the gorgeous Wednesday which is on the way. Be sure to check in on our social networks for frequent updates.

John Homenuk

Nor’easter, cooler air, and the latest on Dorian

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A weakened frontal boundary settled off the Mid Atlantic coast will serve as a highway for a developing low pressure system today. Despite being weak and progressive, the Nor’easter will shift from the Mid Atlantic coast to a position near or off of Cape Cod through Friday. The result, in terms of sensible weather, for our area? More clouds, a cooler northerly flow, and a chance of showers especially along the coast.

The cooler temperatures, clouds and dew points that settled into the area on Thursday have created quite a stir throughout the meteorological community. Not without reason, thought as temperatures fell into the 40’s in much of the interior Northeast early Thursday morning. Parts of elevated New England saw temperatures drop into the upper 30’s! (Just a reminder, it’s July 24th).

After the system shifts northeastward this weekend, temperatures should rebound more towards normal with highs in the low to middle 80s. Conditions look to become more pleasant, with the return of more sun, by this weekend as well.

Dorian still chugging westward: Tropical Storm Dorian, which formed officially Wednesday morning, continued to move west through the Atlantic on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds increased slightly to 60mph, and the system remained compact and small but rather well organized.

Major questions still exist in regards to the eventual track and intensity of Dorian as she shifts west. Forecast models agree that a large and expansive Atlantic Ridge will remain in place. But the important feature, instead of the ridge itself, will be the periphery of the said ridge — as the center of Dorian will likely slide along its fringes. Model guidance indicates that the system may have a slightly higher than normal chance of impacting the US Coast as she is forced west into the Southwest Atlantic and then may potentially recurve northward around the west side of the ridge.

Intensity forecast continue to remain mostly meager on forecast guidance through the next 3-5 days, with most models keeping Dorian at moderate Tropical Storm levels. Increased wind shear by Day 3 may hinder further development of the system as it shifts west — adding further uncertainty to the forecast.

As always, stay tuned over the next few days. Despite the fact that the system is several days away from potentially impacting land, we will continue to provide updates both on our web page and social media outlets.