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John Homenuk

Seasons first heatwave, tropical threat this week

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If you weren’t already convinced that summer had arrived, you will be by the end of this upcoming week. A building ridge is expected to set the stage for the seasons first potential heatwave (with temperatures of 90+ for three days or more) during the early to middle part of the week. Additionally, a tropical system may skirt the east coast by the latter half of the week into the holiday weekend. Don’t panic about your holiday plans just yet — models are still all over the place with the exact track of the system — but many of them are bringing it precariously close to the coast at this juncture.

Our hazardous weather begins, though, with the aforementioned heat wave during the early to mid part of the week. By Tuesday, a building ridge and rising mid level temperatures will help bring surface temperatures well into the 80’s — and likely 90’s — in much of the area. Southerly winds could keep things a bit cooler near the shore, but will pump in the hot air elsewhere. Rising dew points and humidity won’t help. Without a shadow of a doubt, it will feel like mid summer during this week.

NAM model forecasting high temperatures in the 90's on Wednesday.

NAM model forecasting high temperatures in the 90’s on Wednesday.

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John Homenuk

Heat builds, severe thunderstorm risk increases

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As a mid level ridge builds throughout the eastern half of the nation today, temperatures in the mid and low levels of the atmosphere will increase. South of a warm front, which is organizing and becoming more well defined to our north, west-southwesterly winds will begin to usher in the warmer airmass. Mid level temperatures (at 850mb) will warm over 17 C, and with sunshine expected during the afternoon hours on Tuesday, temperatures will warm into the upper 80’s to lower 90’s. When coupled with increasing humidity, it will feel hot and quite muggy.

Back to our west-northwest, a mid level disturbance will be riding along the northern periphery of the building ridge axis. As it does so, it will help to trigger the development of thunderstorms — some of which could be strong to severe. These storms will initially form well to our north and west, but are expected to slide east-southeastward through the Northeast States as the disturbance shifts accordingly. Subsequently, the Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the area in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms.

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