Strong storms possible Saturday, but uncertainty remains high
A complex atmospheric pattern is expected to unfold on Saturday, and the evolution may lead to the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms in the Northeast states. As a mid level ridge builds toward the area from Friday Night into Saturday, a disturbance associated with a thunderstorm complex in the Northern Midwest states will ride over the top of this ridge, eventually diving southeast from Southeast Canada into the Northeast on Saturday. But, as you can imagine, forecast models are struggling with the exact details of its movement through the area.
Convection, inherently, is difficult to forecast. Models are likely to struggle with this disturbance as thunderstorms develop today over the Northern Midwest and head toward parts of the Great Lakes. More importantly, this disturbance will move northeastward into Southeast Canada, along the periphery of a mid level ridge, and then dive southeastward into our area later Saturday — and the timing of its approach becomes critical to the forecast.