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Strong storms possible Saturday, but uncertainty remains high

A complex atmospheric pattern is expected to unfold on Saturday, and the evolution may lead to the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms in the Northeast states. As a mid level ridge builds toward the area from Friday Night into Saturday, a disturbance associated with a thunderstorm complex in the Northern Midwest states will ride over the top of this ridge, eventually diving southeast from Southeast Canada into the Northeast on Saturday. But, as you can imagine, forecast models are struggling with the exact details of its movement through the area.

Convection, inherently, is difficult to forecast. Models are likely to struggle with this disturbance as thunderstorms develop today over the Northern Midwest and head toward parts of the Great Lakes. More importantly, this disturbance will move northeastward into Southeast Canada, along the periphery of a mid level ridge, and then dive southeastward into our area later Saturday — and the timing of its approach becomes critical to the forecast.

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Some Sunshine and Showers/T-Storms This Week

After some dismal weather this past weekend, the tri-state area enjoyed of lots of sunshine this morning with temperatures in the middle or upper 60s and low humidity. An upper-level trough to the north is causing more clouds to mix with sunshine this afternoon. A few isolated showers could pop late this afternoon and evening, well north and west of New York City. Most of the area will stay dry this afternoon. Temperatures will reach in the middle to upper 70s with light southwest winds. Tonight, skies should become mostly clear with low temperatures in the lower 60s and 50s inland.

A warm front will begin moving through region tomorrow and tomorrow night. Ahead of it, light winds will turn more out of south-southeast off the cooler Atlantic waters. However, partial sunshine and 850mb temperatures around 14 degrees celsius during the afternoon, will help temperatures reach the upper 70s to lower 80s for much of the area. Near the New Jersey shore and the south shores of Long Island and Connecticut, high temperatures will be slightly cooler– likely in the middle 70s. A few showers or thunderstorms are possible well north and west of New York City, late in the afternoon. But scattered showers and thunderstorms are more likely later tomorrow night for the rest of us. Model guidance shows low instability and high precipitable water values, or atmospheric moisture co tent. Any thunderstorm will capable of producing heavy rainfall and cloud to ground lightning. Despite this, we aren’t anticipating organized severe weather or hazards at this time. 

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Vivid sunset wows NJ and NYC behind severe storms

Some have told us that last nights sunset was the “best they’ve ever seen”. While that certainly is a variable statement, the sunset which cast New York City and New Jersey in orange and red hues after Tuesday’s storm was certainly one of the best in recent memory.

After strong and severe thunderstorms brought tornado warnings, hail, wind, and dangerous lightning to much of the area, clouds began to thin out in the wake of a cold front. The result was multiple quick moving cloud decks. Mid level clouds created a beautiful layer as low clouds swept by, and the departing Suns red and orange Rays were able to shine off both of them.

The resulting photos were both phenomenal and captivating with their colors; exposing both the beautiful colors and amazing landscape we are fortunate enough to be able to experience. We have included some of our favorites below. If you have some of your own, reply or email them to us!

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Pleasant, calmer weather takes hold midweek

Wow, what a day! Tuesday was one of the more active severe weather days in recent memory. Tornado warnings, destructive winds and downbursts, dangerous lightning, and hail were all a part of the forecast. A tremendous amount of damage reports were received (we’re still sifting through them) and post-analysis will begin very shortly. The good news? The frontal system has moved offshore, and Wednesday will feature much more pleasant — and most importantly, calm — conditions.

Highs will still reach into the 80’s, so it won’t exactly be blustery or chilly out there. But the heat and humidity which gripped the region on Tuesday ahead of the severe thunderstorms will be washed out. The result will be much more comfortable feeling air. Northwest winds will keep things fresh, and the full sun will keep the air warm.

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