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John Homenuk

A bit more unsettled today, Karen disorganized

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Warmer temperatures have been the trend over the past few days — and the pleasant streak of weather we have experienced over the last few weeks now looks to take a brief respite as we head into the weekend and the early part of next week. Increasing humidity today, coupled with a nearby boundary and mid-level atmospheric disturbance will mean increasing clouds and the chance for showers and an isolated thunderstorm. Showers and storms haven’t been around in a while — in fact, almost two weeks (more in some spots). Today will bring isolated to scattered showers and storms throughout the area from west to east, but the main story will be the humid feeling air and presence of more clouds than sun.

US Water Vapor satellite imagery, frontal positions, and SPC severe weather outlook from the morning of October 4 2013. A disorganized T.S Karen is seen in the Gulf of Mexico.

US Water Vapor satellite imagery, frontal positions, and SPC severe weather outlook from the morning of October 4 2013. A disorganized T.S Karen is seen in the Gulf of Mexico.

The unsettled weather will continue through later tonight, but only scattered showers are expected this weekend. The main story will then be the remnants of Tropical Storm Karen, and whether they track close enough to our area up the East Coast early next week to provide tropical rains. Forecast models have diverged in solutions, with some showing tropical rains and some wind while others now shunt the remnants of the system eastward out to sea.

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John Homenuk

TS Karen forms, pleasant pattern may end soon

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The last several days, spilling even into the past several weeks, have featured pleasant weather on average with little precipitation and abundant sunshine. In fact, not only has the weather been pleasant and free of any major storm systems — it has also offered a bit of something for everyone. Cool nights, featuring lows near or below freezing in the suburbs, were the story a week ago. Two to three weeks ago, temperatures reached near 90 with a brief burst of heat. Again this week, temperatures have climbed into the middle 80’s. One thing has remained consistent, however: There has been lots of sun, and very little precipitation. The benign weather pattern finally looks to come to an end, however brief, early next week. In fact, the changes begin on Friday as clouds increase and a weak mid level disturbance brings a chance of showers.

Tropical Storm Karen formed early this morning, and is seen here entering the Gulf of Mexico at 8am 10/3/2013.

Tropical Storm Karen formed early this morning, and is seen here entering the Gulf of Mexico at 8am 10/3/2013.

Tropical Storm Karen formed early this morning, after forecasters tracked the disturbance from the Caribbean towards the Gulf of Mexico. Karen is forecast to track northeastward towards the Gulf Coast states late this weekend into early next week. Meanwhile, a mid level trough over the Central United States will be shifting eastward towards the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. The timing of the two features remains somewhat uncertain, but forecast models indicate the potential for tropical remnants and heavy rain to track up the coast early next week.

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