Posts

John Homenuk

Warmer, unsettled weather to close the week

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The roller-coaster ride continues this week, as temperatures again have fluctuated dramatically over the past several days. The cold weather from earlier this week has been replaced with warmer air today, and the trend will continue into Friday. Warm southwesterly winds will continue to advect in a moderating, moist airmass ahead of a major storm system over the Central United States.

With this warm, unfortunately, will come unsettled conditions as well. Although high temperatures will approach the upper 60’s to lower 70’s in many areas over the next few days, clouds and showers will become increasingly likely as well — essentially from Thursday afternoon onward.

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John Homenuk

(Premium) Intensity of weekend cold still uncertain

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After many of us geared up for Spring with warm weather in both the early and middle part of March, the atmosphere reminded us that no transition is as smooth as it may seem. Colder, blustery air has returned to the area, and although a mild stretch is expected during the middle of this coming week, very cold air will again surge into the area by this weekend. As we spoke about several days ago, forecast models have done an excellent job of signaling the overall pattern teleconnections and evolution, with a surge of cold air possible during the first week of April.

Over the past few days, however, the intensity and duration of this cold air has come into question. Forecast models have trended slightly weaker overall with the lobe of the Polar Vortex which will break off and head southward into Southeast Canada and Northern New England. Accordingly, the forecast temperatures in our area have moderated a bit. While the overall evoltion of the pattern still suggests anomalously cold air gets to our region, a more south-to-north gradient appears likely, with the coldest temperatures likely north of New York City and more slight to moderate departures from normal to the south.

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Miguel Pierre

Rain today, increasingly windy tonight into Tuesday

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After a beautiful, cool Easter weekend, wet weather has returned to begin the week. An upper-level shortwave amplifying west over Great Lakes region will cause a surface area of low pressure to deepen while tracking northeast over Great Lakes. A cold front will move across the local area by early this afternoon. A secondary low pressure area, developing off Delmarva coast this morning, will track northeast well to the south and east of Long Island this afternoon. These systems are combining to bring periods of rain region through early in the day — and contributing to the raw, wet conditions as well.

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Miguel Pierre

April likely to begin with a shot of cold air

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The irony of this post, as we write it, is the fact that temperatures are currently surging into the upper 60’s and lower 70’s. A warm airmass is in place, and even behind some rain which fell this morning, highs will reach well above normal. Playoff hockey is just a few weeks away, as is opening day in Major League Baseball. Mother nature, however, has other plans — and she doesn’t seem ready to cooperate with the calendar just yet, as it flips to April.

A major transition in the atmospheric pattern throughout the northern hemisphere will begin next week. On Monday a fairly weak and fast moving storm system will move through the area, with some rainfall anticipated. Behind this storm system will be a Canadian airmass with temperatures perhaps slightly below normal for Tuesday. Model and ensemble guidance indicate a -EPO ridge developing over the Northeast Pacific and Alaska region for middle on next week. This ridge will cause energy to dig and cut over the Southwest United States. Heights will build over Central and Eastern United States with fair weather in local region Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will likely rise to above normal levels again during the later part of next week.

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