Posts

Miguel Pierre

Weekend Overview: Showers Possible Saturday, Matthew Parallels the Southeast Coast

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After some areas of morning patchy fog. Today turned out beautiful day with temperatures rising in the middle 70s this afternoon. Skies will remain mostly clear this evening, then clouds will increase again later tonight, as low-moisture increasing underneath an inversion. Some areas of patchy fog and drizzle could also be around again early tomorrow morning. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the 50s over most region. Closer to 60 for NYC metro and urban areas.

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John Homenuk

Matthew’s shifting track spares Northeast, targets Florida

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Hurricane Matthew is tracking northwest of Cuba today, strengthening and re-organizing after land interaction as it moves into the Bahamas. Extremely warm water and favorable to near-ideal upper level atmospheric conditions will support re-strengthening of the storm on its trek northwestward over the next few days. This is troubling for many reasons, but none more than the fact that while the storm strengthens, a large ridge will build to its east over the Western Atlantic. This will essentially block any eastward component to Matthews movement, instead insuring west-northwestward movement toward the Bahamas and Florida late this week.

Forecast models, in fact, have come into better agreement on the exact track of Matthew over the next 48-60 hours or so. As the storm strengthens, with favorable sea surface temperature and depth as well as favorable mid and upper level jet positioning for ventilation, it will move toward the Southeast Florida coast. The mid level ridge to the east of Matthew will guide the storm on a northwest heading, eventually with a more northward turn, near the coast of Florida.

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John Homenuk

The latest on Hurricane Matthew and his uncertain fate

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Hurricane Matthew continues to churn in the Caribbean this morning, and after briefly obtaining Category 5 strength this weekend, has steadily maintained Category 4 strength with winds near 145 miles per hour. Matthew was the first Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean in 9 years, making the storm significant in its own right before it made any landfall. But exactly where the storm tracks over the next several days will determine its legacy — and some forecast models continue to suggest that we may remember the storm for a landfall on U.S soil.

The pattern dictating where Matthew goes, however, is complicated. As it stands this morning, steering currents around Matthew are quite weak. They’ve been that way for a few days now, and not surprisingly Matthew has lingered, wobbled, and meandered in the warm waters of the Central Caribbean. He will begin a notable northward turn today, however, and as he moves northward toward more favorable mid and upper level winds, the storm is expected to pass dangerously close to the islands of Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba. Forecast models currently suggest Matthew is most likely to track on the Eastern Shores of Cuba before re-emerging into the borderline hot waters of the Bahamas.

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Miguel Pierre

Hurricane Matthew’s Potential Impacts on the Caribbean and United States

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Matthew unexpectedly underwent rapid intensification to category 5 hurricane on Friday. This is despite between 20-30kts southwesterly shear over the eye. Today, Matthew has slightly weakened down to category 4  hurricane. But still remains a very powerful and dangerous hurricane.  Matthew has been moving very slowly west-southwestward over the Central Caribbean. But is expected to make gradual turn northward later tonight and Sunday. This will take the eye somewhere between Jamaica, Eastern Cuba and Haiti Bahamas by Monday. Then somewhere over the Bahamas by Tuesday and Wednesday. So will Matthew turn towards the United States or will go out to sea? Well alot depends how it interacts with incoming trough and how strong the ridge is over the Western Atlantic.

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