Good morning! The past several days have been quite active in the meteorological community.We began last week on the tail end of a pattern featuring stagnant warmth, with ridging in the Eastern United States and cold air bottled up in Western Canada and the Pacific Northwest. A well advertised change has occurred since that time, however, with cold air surging southeastward into the Great Lakes and Northeast States.
As we move into February we are likely to see another change in the hemispheric weather pattern. Once again, changes with MJO/tropical forcing and in the stratosphere will play a major role in this shift. In our long-range outlook update on Saturday, we discussed these features and how they may potentially influence the atmospheric pattern. Here we will discuss what influence these climate phenomenon will have on pattern during the February and into first half March.
The pattern is changing — again. We discussed in an article on Monday how the Pacific Ocean will play a large role in the long-range pattern going forward. Currently, a jet extension in the Pacific Ocean is facilitating a progressive, mild pattern across the United States with storms tracking over the Central part of the country towards the Great Lakes. But tropical forcing and an MJO pulse will cause a deepening trough over Eastern Asia, with a developing standing wave (ridge) over the Eastern Pacific Ocean.
A huge change from the current state of the pattern, these developing waves in the Pacific Ocean are being caused by the MJO and tropical forcing developments, with additional impacts from the stratosphere. Lets dive in to the details of what is really causing the changing pattern — and why it’s so important.