noreaster – Page 7 – New York Metro Weather

Significant coastal storm could affect the area this weekend

January 21, 2015/by John Homenuk

If you hung your hat on a quiet and benign winter after the slow start to December and January, you may want to rethink things. Forecast models are in good agreement on a significant coastal storm — yes, a Nor’Easter — impacting the area this weekend. The storm is likely to form as a result of a significant mid level atmospheric disturbance, which will shift from the Four Corners region of the United States northeastward through the Mississippi Valley and eventually off the coast of the Mid Atlantic States.

The disturbance will force the development of a strong low pressure system, which will shift from the Carolina coast to a position off the Mid Atlantic States and eventually a position near the 40/70 Benchmark on Saturday evening. Forecast models, however, remain somewhat undecided as to the evolution of the energy in the mid levels of the atmosphere — and the evolution and strength of the surface low as it moves up the coast. Obviously, this will have a major impact on the conditions that our area experiences including precipitation type and intensity.

Multi-hazard Nor’Easter expected Tuesday

December 8, 2014/by John Homenuk

A significant storm system, characterized by a deepening low pressure with prolific moisture, will move from the Western Atlantic to a position very near New York City on Tuesday. As a result of a mid level atmospheric phase, the storm system will feature intense mid and upper level dynamics. The system is forecast to strengthen with a minimal central pressure near 1012mb today, falling into the mid 990’s mb by Tuesday. With a storm track near our area, and the dynamics involved in the system, multiple weather hazards are anticipated both near our area shores and even inland throughout the interior portions of the area.

Precipitation could begin as early as Monday morning along the coasts of New Jersey and New York as moisture streams inland, owing to an onshore flow. But as the storm system is tugged inland from the Western Atlantic, as a result of the phase in the mid levels of the atmosphere, warm air advection and increased moisture will surge heavier and steadier precipitation toward the coast and eventually into New York City, New Jersey, Southeast New York and Connecticut. Enough low level cold air could hold on across the higher elevations of the interior to allow precipitation to begin as snow, sleet or freezing rain — but this will only be brief as mid level and low level warming transitions precipitation to rain quickly.

The event will create multiple potential hazards throughout our area on Tuesday as the low pressure system tracks nearby. We’ve broken them down here.

Coastal storm likely early next week

December 5, 2014/1 Comment/by John Homenuk

Although it may seem like we’re beating the same old drum, here we are again — a significant coastal storm looks increasing likely early next week. Forecast models have come into much better agreement on the evolution of the mid and upper level atmospheric pattern across the Continental United States from late this week into this weekend. After a weekend rain event and weak disturbance, two additional disturbances in the mid levels of the atmosphere will move eastward from the West Coast. The first will settle into the Southeast States, while the second will be dropping southeastward from the Northern Plains into the Mississippi Valley. The two disturbances will interact, and possibly phase, early next week — and the end result will be a strengthening Nor’Easter on Tuesday.

The questions, now, become more related to specifics and the sensible weather that these features will bring. The strengthening coastal storm is likely to feature tremendous amounts of moisture and impressive dynamics aloft, but the exact track and intensity of the storm system will obviously significant impact what we see in our area. At this time, the potential is heightened for a multi-hazard Nor’Easter to impact our area from Tuesday into Wednesday, but our confidence in the areas impacted highest and the hazardous weather that our entire area experiences is low.

Live Blog: Wednesday’s high impact Nor’Easter

November 26, 2014/by John Homenuk

Below, you will find our live blog which will be active and public throughout the day on Wednesday. Our meteorologists will update frequently with information on the storm, including the latest updates and information. Comment with any observations, information and thoughts you have as well!

Tag Archive for: noreaster

Posts