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Complex storm system wraps up later today

A dynamic and complex storm system (not a nor’easter by definition despite the efforts of some to call it such) continued to menace the East Coast early on Wednesday, during one of the biggest travel days of the year. Significant delays were reported this morning at several area airports, owing to the strong winds and heavy rain. Through this afternoon, periods of heavy rain are expected to continue. The center of low pressure has moved north and east of the area into Southern New England, but lower pressures extending southward and a noticeable thermal boundary will serve as a “highway” for continuing rainfall.

With time, however, this boundary will shift eastward and the low pressure center will shift north/northeast. The most noticeable effect of this will be the temperature and wind shift. Warm temperatures from earlier this morning (60’s observed throughout much of New Jersey and even into New York City) will become a distant memory as westerly winds behind the aforementioned thermal boundary will usher in colder air. Temperatures are forecast to fall back into the 40’s by later today, and 20’s and 30’s overnight tonight. Snow showers cannot be ruled out by later this evening throughout the area in the wake of the strengthening low pressure center. The heaviest rain is expected to wrap up by mid-afternoon, but will linger into the evening across areas North and East of NYC.

Water vapor satellite imagery from Wednesday 11/27/13, showing a tropical moisture fetch with a storm system in the Eastern US.

Water vapor satellite imagery from Wednesday 11/27/13, showing a tropical moisture fetch with a storm system in the Eastern US.

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Widespread impacts from midweek storm

A pre-thanksgiving storm system will create a travel nightmare from Tuesday Night through Wednesday, providing a myriad of threats up and down the east coast. Before we dive into the details of the storm system, what’s causing it to occur, and what you can expect in our area, we can lay out a few things we know as fact as of Tuesday morning. First, there will be significant travel delays on Wednesday. If you’re driving, flying, or using some other form of travel in the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast US, expect delays…likely significant. Second, Thanksgiving day itself won’t be all that bad. So once you make it where you need to be, the weather for actual Turkey Day looks to be fairly pleasant, albeit a bit cold. In our post below, we break down the storm system and what you can expect from it.

Visible satellite imagery from Tuesday morning, showing a significant storm system forming in the Southeast US.

Visible satellite imagery from Tuesday morning, showing a significant storm system forming in the Southeast US.

What’s the deal, how is this storm forming?

Two pieces of energy in the jet stream across the Central and Eastern United States will phase on Wednesday, essentially very close to our forecast area. A low pressure area will develop from the Southeast States northeastward into New England. As it does so, warm air will stream up the Eastern Seaboard — as will significant amounts of precipitation in association with a strong low level jet and moisture transport. The low pressure system will then rapidly deepen as it moves to our north through New England and into Eastern Canada.

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NYC Forecast: Moderating, big arctic surge looms

It was quite a cold start throughout the area this morning, likely made to feel more alarming due to the warmer weather which we experienced over this past weekend. But the progressive weather pattern which has become dominant throughout much of the United States over the past month continues to dominate, and colder air poured into the area on Monday and Tuesday. Today will be another cold one, with highs only in the 40’s to maybe near 50 in the warm spots. It will feel a hair warmer thanks to the lack of blustery winds, which took real-feel temperatures for a tumble on Tuesday afternoon.

Moderating temperatures are expected to continue on both Thursday and Friday, as highs will warm into the 50’s. The progressive nature of the pattern, despite continuing, seems to be becoming a bit more anomalous with time. And after the 60’s to near 70 this past weekend, an arctic plunge is forecast for the weekend ahead of us. Behind a cold front (which will move into the area on Saturday), the coldest air of the season thus far is forecast to move into the Northeast US. 850mb temperatures, for comparison, are near -3 degrees C today. By Sunday, forecast models show 850mb temperatures of -16 C or colder.

Surface temperature anomaly forecast for Sunday on the European model, showing well below normal temperatures.

Surface temperature anomaly forecast for Sunday on the European model, showing well below normal temperatures.

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NYC Forecast: Chilly today, arctic air awaits this weekend

weatherrateMuch colder air filtered into the area late on Monday evening and continued to do so into early Tuesday morning. The change comes on the heels of a major cold front, which pushed through the early on Monday. Temperatures fell into the 30’s overnight — and the temperature drop at the 850mb level was equally as impressive, falling to near – 10 C in northern parts of the area on Tuesday morning. Highs on Tuesday will only scrape into the 40’s, with blustery winds especially early. The combination of the two will make it feel pretty cold, especially after Monday which featured highs in the middle 60’s with a very warm sun.

The forecast takes us through a bit of moderation as we look ahead to the middle of the week, as the cold airmass over the region currently will begin to lose its grip on the pattern. High temperatures look to warm a few degrees each day, from the mid to upper 40’s on Tuesday, into the mid to upper 50’s by Thursday. The moderation will come ahead of a potential arctic plunge, however, as another strong front and associated disturbance approach the area this weekend.

In the shorter term, winds calm by tonight and clear skies are expected through the overnight period with temperatures dropping into the 20’s inland and near 30 in the city/urban areas. Great viewing for the expected 730pm Minotaur rocket launch from Wallops Island in Virginia. You can catch a glimpse of the launch by simply looking southeast at that time — the rocket will appear in the skies 30 to 60 seconds after launch. More forecast details after the break.

Timing of first sighting above horizon by location, for tonight's 730pm planned rocket launch.

Timing of first sighting above horizon by location, for tonight’s 730pm planned rocket launch.

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