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Seaward she goes: Weekend Nor’easter will spare our area

Reports of the early arrival of winter may have been premature after all. A significant coastal storm system, developing this weekend, will move from the Carolina coast to a position east of the Gulf of Maine. As it does so, it will organize off the East Coast and bring periods of showers and gusty winds to our area beaches. But the storm system won’t become truly organized and mature until it is well to the Northeast of our area. As a result of this, the cold air being drawn in behind the system won’t move in until the storm is well past us — and the precipitation that does fall (as rain) isn’t expected to be heavy.

Still, the disturbance is extremely impressive and quite anomalous for this time of year. The initial disturbance swings out from the Tennessee Valley on Friday, and a surface low will develop as a result. The second disturbance is much more impressive, however, surging southward from Canada through the Great Lakes. This shortwave will race through the Tennessee Valley and to a position near the Southern Mid Atlantic Coast late on Friday — bringing 500mb anomalies to nearly -6 standard deviation. It will be, without a doubt, the most anomalous feature on the globe at the time. But the system will shift northeast, a good length behind the initial disturbance, while the surface low pressure remains unorganized.

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Rain, wind, and even snow possible this weekend

An energetic mid and upper level disturbance will shift from Central Canada through the Northeast United States late this week into the early part of this weekend, helping to develop a coastal storm. In addition to the coastal storm will come a strong cold front, and a cold Canadian airmass which will drop temperatures into the 20’s and 30’s at times after its passage. With models hinting at the development of multiple surface lows off the coast, the potential exists for not only rain and wind — but some snow in the higher elevations and the first flakes for others as the storm develops.

But the setup remains extremely complicated. The source region of the disturbance means forecast models are already working with a somewhat limited dataset. And, as is often the case with storms in our area, the mid level disturbances will be involved in fragile interactions, all of which will have a major impact on exactly how the storm develops. Confidence, as a result of these small nuances and features, remains very low. The general idea of a strengthening coastal storm passing along the East Coast, however, is gaining traction quickly.

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Rain, cold and even snow possible this weekend

There, we used the “S word” in one of our posts for the first time this season. An energetic mid and upper level disturbance will shift from Central Canada through the Northeast United States late this week into the early part of this weekend, helping to develop a coastal storm. In addition to the coastal storm will come a strong cold front, and a cold Canadian airmass which will drop temperatures into the 30’s and 40’s at times after its passage. With models hinting at the development of multiple surface lows off the coast, the potential exists for not only rain and wind — but some snow in the higher elevations and the first flakes for others.

But the setup remains extremely complicated. The source region of the disturbance means forecast models are already working with a somewhat limited dataset. And, as is often the case with storms in our area, the mid level disturbances will be involved in fragile interactions, all of which will have a major impact on exactly how the storm develops. Confidence, as a result of these small nuances and features, remains very low.

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Coastal storm lingers, improving weekend

As meteorologists, you sometimes just have to toss your hands up and admit defeat. And with this weeks Nor’Easter, we’re doing just that. The storm came in much more intense, much more organized, and much more impactful than we forecasted or anticipated it to be. And while our area saw periods of heavy rain and wind from the storm, the system itself was quite dynamic.  Similar to winter Nor’Easters both aloft and at the surface, the storm featured a deepening surface low and a dynamically impressive mid level trough.

Enhanced lift from the developing surface low, which actually retrograded westward from the Atlantic toward Long Island last night, moved over New England and New York City overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. The result was heavy rain, and more noticeably, strong gusty winds mixing down to the surface. The dynamic system featured strong winds just above the surface — and so heavy rain brought these down. Gusts over 50 miles per hour were common throughout New England and Long Island.

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