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Miguel Pierre

NYC Forecast: Dreary, cooler weather this weekend

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Happy Friday! High pressure will allow for more sunshine to mix with clouds through this afternoon. High temperatures will reach the middle 70s, which is several degrees above normal. For tonight, clouds and onshore flow will increase, as a backdoor cold front moves through the area. Temperatures will drop overnight into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

For this weekend, an onshore flow will continue to persist between high pressure to the northeast and a coastal storm developing off the Carolina coast. This will likely keep cloudy, cool dreary conditions for much of the weekend. Temperatures will likely struggle to get out of 60s in the area on Saturday and Sunday.

A few showers could develop over parts of the area later in the day on Saturday, as moisture convergence from the onshore flow increases. Then chances for showers will increase again on Sunday, as the coastal storm tracks a little further northeast and interacts with an upper-level trough passing to the north. But stronger high pressure to the northeast will likely keep any bands of heavy rain disorganized and south of the NYC metro area.

ECMWF model suggests showers in the NYC metro area on Sunday with a broad, disorganized coastal storm to our south

Some showers could linger into Sunday night. Then on Monday the coastal storm will begin weakening and heading further offshore. Chances for showers will decrease and skies could begin clearing by Monday afternoon. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s or lower 70s again with more sunshine.

Then a stronger upper-level ridge will build over the Northeast for rest of the next week. This will allow for warmer conditions to return with temperatures likely reaching the middle 70s again on Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak cold front may approach with few showers later on Wednesday. But temperatures will likely remain warmer than normal into late next week.

That’s all for today. Have a great weekend!

John Homenuk

Strong storm expected in the Northeast this weekend

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Amidst an anomalous pattern, which features a large ridge in the Western United States and a changeable Pacific Ocean wave progression, sensible weather changes have been observed across the Continental United States. Nowhere is this more apparent this morning than Minnesota, where snow is on the ground across much of the Central and Northern parts of the State after a very warm October. Nationally, though, the anomalous warmth has gone on a hiatus as well, as the Western USA ridge acts to promote cooler air surging southward.

These anomalous patterns on either of our coasts can often preclude multiple storm threats, including the potential for larger ones, and this pattern will be no different. After a handful of storm systems in the Central US and Great Lakes will come a larger, more significant storm threat later this weekend in the Northeast States. A deep trough is expected to dig into the Mississippi River Valley this weekend, interacting with energy over the Southeastern United States.

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Miguel Pierre

Winds of change blowing as cooler risks set to return

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Happy Monday! Much of the past several weeks have featured a similar synoptic weather headline across North America: Trough west, ridge east. This pattern had led to large scale above-normal temperature anomalies from the Plains eastward to the Mississippi River, exacerbated near the East Coast. But there are growing signs that this pattern will be changing over next few weeks.

Until now, the pattern has been largely driven by the presence of tropical forcing, from the ENSO regions where La Niña conditions have essentially taken over. We can use multiple measures and analytical approaches to understand exactly how the tropical convection is impacting global circulations, one of them being the SOI. This essentially lets us know if the atmosphere is responding in line with an El Niño, La Niña or neither.

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Miguel Pierre

Cooling Trend into this Weekend for the Northeast, Warming Up Again Next Week!

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Good morning! Our warm and muggy pattern comes to end today. A cold front has passed through early this morning. Temperatures may hold steady or slowly falling for rest of morning, before rising again into the mid-upper 70s with lower humidity this afternoon. Plenty of sunshine and breezy conditions are expected today. Northerly winds will be sustained around 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts up to 30 mph possible this afternoon and early this evening.

Mostly clear skies will continue into tonight. As a cooler, Canadian airmass begins to settle into the Northeast, temperatures will drop into the mid-upper 50s over more urban and coastal areas and upper 40s to lower 50s over Interior areas. Winds will also gradually diminish overnight, as the pressure gradient over the Northeast weakens. But more ideal radiational cooling conditions aren’t expected. On Friday, weak high pressure over the Northeast will support plenty of sunshine for most of the day. But a cooling trend will continue, with high temperatures only into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Which is actually closer to seasonal levels for this time of year.

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