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AM AG Update: Impacts of a retrograding Pacific pattern

Happy Monday, folks! We hope our morning update finds you well. We’re going to jump straight in to some developments which we communicated over the weekend, and take a bit of a deeper look at their evolution and impacts. About 5 days ago, we discussed at length the pattern which currently existed across the Northern Hemisphere — including why it had become so stagnant. We also discussed the pieces behind the potential for a change during the latter half of the month of August, namely the pattern in the Pacific Ocean. As we move towards the middle of the month,  medium range forecast ensembles are starting to pick up on these gradual changes as well.

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The importance of the Pacific Ocean in the U.S weather pattern

Thousands of miles away, in the Northern Pacific Ocean, a large ridge is develops in the atmosphere. This, if only by human nature, seems like a relatively inauspicious development at first. But its presence will be disruptive. Disturbances over the Western Arctic will be dislodged southward into Canada, cold air will push into the Northern 1/3 of the USA. The amplitude of the wave pattern will change. And suddenly, a snowstorm will develop along the East Coast of the United States.

Yes, we’re speaking in the past tense here. This already occurred, just a few weeks ago, during the most impactful winter weather event so far this winter in the Eastern United States. The root cause of the storm system, in relation to the atmospheric pattern, can be traced back to the Pacific Ocean, where a large developing ridge near Alaska completely changed what was an otherwise stale weather pattern.

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