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Weekly Overview: Pleasant fall week ahead

Another Monday morning is underway, which means it’s time for our weekly overview post! It is our hope that these posts can get you through the struggles of the next few hours at work. The weekend is a memory now — so it’s time to start talking to your coworkers or friends about anything good that happened, and well past the time to start forgetting about anything else. Anyway — a fast past weather pattern remains underway for this upcoming week — except this time, we’ll be on the good side of it, with only one brief chance for showers on Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, the weather looks extremely pleasant. Temperatures will still be a hair below normal, with highs in the 70’s and cool nights.

Express-Cast 

Today: Sunny, highs near 70. | Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows mid 50’s.

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Pleasant weather in control this weekend

After a weeks worth of unsettled weather, including prolific rains which ended as the 10th wettest day ever at New York City, the upcoming stretch of more pleasant weather will certainly be welcomed with open arms. Despite an elongating upper level low to our north, Friday will be the start of the generally pleasant stretch of weather. Behind a cold front, dry westerly winds will alleviate any precipitation concerns. High temperatures will still be able to rebound into the upper 60s — making for a pleasant day with a mix of clouds and sun.

The upcoming weekend days look to feature a very similar mix of sun and clouds. The upper level energy, elongated and meandering to our north, will allow for the chances of showers and possibly a rumble of thunder during the afternoon on Saturday and Sunday. But these showers and storms won’t be “organized” per se, and will weaken with the loss of daytime heating. High temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s will feel refreshingly good, so the showers shouldn’t be too much of a nuisance.

Visible satellite imagery showing partly cloudy skies in the area Friday morning.

Visible satellite imagery showing partly cloudy skies in the area Friday morning.

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Forecast: Chilly start, becoming pleasant

The coldest night of the season to date occurred from Sunday Night into Monday morning throughout most of the area suburbs. The pine barrens of Long Island, many interior areas of New Jersey, and the suburbs of New York and Connecticut fell into the 30’s with clear skies, light winds and a cool airmass settled into the area. The city and urban locations, however, struggled to fall — with Central Park already observing a temperature in the lower 50s as early as 730am on Monday.

NAM showing 850mb temperatures falling between -4 and -6 C through the Northeast later this week.

NAM showing 850mb temperatures falling between -4 and -6 C through the Northeast later this week.

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TS Karen forms, pleasant pattern may end soon

The last several days, spilling even into the past several weeks, have featured pleasant weather on average with little precipitation and abundant sunshine. In fact, not only has the weather been pleasant and free of any major storm systems — it has also offered a bit of something for everyone. Cool nights, featuring lows near or below freezing in the suburbs, were the story a week ago. Two to three weeks ago, temperatures reached near 90 with a brief burst of heat. Again this week, temperatures have climbed into the middle 80’s. One thing has remained consistent, however: There has been lots of sun, and very little precipitation. The benign weather pattern finally looks to come to an end, however brief, early next week. In fact, the changes begin on Friday as clouds increase and a weak mid level disturbance brings a chance of showers.

Tropical Storm Karen formed early this morning, and is seen here entering the Gulf of Mexico at 8am 10/3/2013.

Tropical Storm Karen formed early this morning, and is seen here entering the Gulf of Mexico at 8am 10/3/2013.

Tropical Storm Karen formed early this morning, after forecasters tracked the disturbance from the Caribbean towards the Gulf of Mexico. Karen is forecast to track northeastward towards the Gulf Coast states late this weekend into early next week. Meanwhile, a mid level trough over the Central United States will be shifting eastward towards the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. The timing of the two features remains somewhat uncertain, but forecast models indicate the potential for tropical remnants and heavy rain to track up the coast early next week.

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