Posts

Miguel Pierre

Premium Weekly Outlook: Heavy Rainfall Likely Tuesday and Wednesday

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The region has under moderate to severe drought conditions for over past several weeks. But a expansive, complex storm system centered over middle of part of the county, will impact the region Tuesday through Wednesday night, with more widespread, heavy rains likely. A closed upper-level low embedded within larger tough will be moving from the Upper Midwest to Great Lakes. This will cause a mid-level ridge to build over the Eastern US with a mild, moist southerly flow. A couple disturbances with a frontal boundaries will be rotating around the closed upper-level low and trough, causing two rounds of significant rainfall over the region.

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John Homenuk

Multiple rounds of heavy rain likely in the Northeast this week

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An expansive and multi-faceted storm system will develop throughout the United States during the early and middle part of the upcoming week. Multiple pieces of energy will move from the Plains through the Mississippi and Ohio Valley’s and eventually towards the Northeast — each disturbance aiding in the development of heavy rain over a relatively large area. While wintry precipitation and severe weather are both possible in the Central United States, the main focus in the Northeast will be periods of heavy rain — much needed in many areas.

While uncertainty does exist given the multiple disturbances and intricate interactions between fronts, confidence has increased in the heavy rain threat over the past 24 to 48 hours. Forecast model and ensemble guidance has come into much better agreement on the storms overall evolution, with two separate rounds of rainfall likely in the Northeast US from Tuesday through Thursday.

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Miguel Pierre

Premium Weekly Outlook: A cut-off low brings unsettled weather and rainfall

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So far this month, while there have been cool shots, we’ve seen warmer than normal temperatures dominate for a longer period. It has also been quite dry. But more seasonable temperatures and unsettled weather is looking likely for this weekly period overall. So much-needed rainfall may also be on the way, especially for Long Island which is currently under a severe drought.

Today has gotten of to a chilly start with temperatures in the 40s over most of the region. Some interior locations and the Pine Barrens dropped down into the middle to upper 30s with some pockets of frost. Sunshine will dominate much of the day and it will be pleasant Autumn afternoon overall. But some clouds will begin increasing later this afternoon, as a frontal boundary associated with a closed upper-level over Great Lakes begins approaching the region. Temperatures will still reach the upper 60s to lower 70s across most of the region.

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John Homenuk

Midweek storm system likely to bring widespread rainfall

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It has been quite some time since our area experienced an area-wide moderate rainfall event. That looks to change during the middle of this coming week, as the remnants of Hurricane Patricia interact with another atmospheric dsiturbance over the Central United States. The resulting low pressure system will develop through the Great Lakes and into Canada, allowing the northward surge of moisture along the East Coast and toward our area on Wednesday.

Interestingly enough, the indirect impacts from Patricia will be enough to bust a pattern which had been continuously dry in our area. Moderate drought conditions continued in much of Northern New Jersey, NYC, Long Island and Connecticut to start this week, still lingering from the very dry summer months. New York City is still running 8″ behind the average seasonal rainfall total. This weeks rainfall event, then, may be “welcomed”.

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