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Technical: Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Likely Late This Afternoon

After some record warmth over the past few days, we are about to get our usual strong cold front “snap” back towards seasonable temperatures. But considering how warm and moist the atmosphere is initially, this means there will be quite an impressive temperature gradient, which is often a great fuel for storm development. Although the severe weather event in the Ohio Valley greatly underperformed (as expected), that does not necessarily portend an under-performer further east. While things do not necessarily lead to a major severe weather outbreak, the recent model guidance has actually trended a bit more impressive with a line of thunderstorms for late Saturday afternoon.

The reason this is happening is because there is a lot more backed low-level flow in our area compared to what the Ohio Valley had, meaning the surface winds are bending back to the southeast instead of the southwest. This adds more directional wind shear to the profile, considering winds just above the surface turn southwest — so that southeast to southwest turning with height provides some low-level rotation and thus a bit more organized updrafts. Additionally, there is a well-timed increase in the 850mb jet and lower just ahead of the strongest convection, allowing the line of thunderstorms to maintain its strength.

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1/12/16 AM All Zones Update: Mild Temperatures Today, Wintry Weather Returns by Saturday

A warm front has lifted well north of the region. A mild southwesterly has help temperatures rise into the 50s. But cloud cover and some areas of drizzle continues to linger with some low-level moisture underneath inversion. Some more scattered showers are possible early this afternoon, as mid-level shortwave passing through region.

This afternoon, clouds may break for sunshine. If this occurs temperatures will rise into lower to middle 60s. Which will be near records at climo sites over the region. Partly to mostly cloudy remain tonight, as cold front passes through region. But more shower activity is expected to be more widely scattered with this front, with a lack of lift across the region. Temperatures will fall back into 40s, as this front passes through late tonight.

 

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Light snow tapers off this morning…more light snow possible Saturday

Snow has begun tapering off and ending southwest to northeast across all zones early this morning. This occurs as low pressure tracks east-northeast off the North Carolina coast and more lift with an associated upper-level jet streak start to move the northeast of the region. Most snowfall reports so far have been between 1” – 3″, as expected.  Some additional light accumulation is possible over the next few hours over Eastern parts of Long Island and Connecticut that could bring snowfall totals to near 4”. Otherwise, take more precaution driving out roadways, as some slick spots will likely remain for another into the mid-morning hours.

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