Posts

John Homenuk

Significant severe weather possible in Northern Plains on Wednesday

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Happy Tuesday evening! For the past several days, our forecasters have internally discussed (to members and clients) the potential for a significant severe weather event throughout the Northern Plains during the middle part of this week. On the periphery of a strong mid level ridge, forecast models and ensembles have been hinting for several days that impressively strong mid level winds will surge southward from Canada.

This may not sound overly significant initially, but the mid level winds strengthening along the northern periphery of a strong heat ridge can often be the first signal for significant severe weather potential. As these winds juxtapose with the presence of impressive instability and sometimes lift, severe thunderstorms can develop and quickly organize. This Wednesday will be the culmination of these ingredients. Lets break it down:

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John Homenuk

Multiple strong to severe storm opportunities this week

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Happy Monday Morning to you all! We’re back in action after a weekend of lovely weather, and the day will start off quite pleasant throughout the majority of the Northeast today as well. Regional observations throughout the entire region showed dry and pleasant air in place, with dew points largely in the 50’s, especially in the higher elevations of the interior Northeast where they are even lower. After a pleasant and relatively crisp morning (we use that term loosely given the lack of a humid airmass), some changes are likely to unfold today.

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Miguel Pierre

Premium Weekly Outlook: More active, progressive pattern this week

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Good morning and happy Monday! Overall it was a beautiful weekend, especially as lower humidity settled into the region on Sunday. But a more active, progressive weather pattern is expected this week. This comes as a strong heat ridge begins building over the Rockies and Western Plains this week and the AO/NAO remains positive with lack of high-latitude blocking. This pattern will allow some ridging to build into the region this week with heat and humidity building. Multiple disturbances are expected to move from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, with threats for showers and thunderstorms this week.

First off,  high pressure will be moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast, with a return southerly flow developing over the region today. Mostly sunny skies are expected this morning, then some clouds will be increasing and filtering the sunshine as a warm front approaches.  Humidity will begin increasing later this afternoon as dew points rise into 60s. More lift and instability ahead of warm front may lead to a few isolated showers or thunderstorms popping up over the region later this afternoon. Temperatures will rise into lower to middle 80s area wide. South-southwest winds today will allow for sea-breezes to keep coastal sections in the 70s much of this afternoon.

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Miguel Pierre

Premium Long Range: More Heat & Severe Weather Risks Going Into July

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After a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, more pleasant weather with temperatures near to slightly below normal will continue over the next few days. But there are many signs of overall pattern change support more typical mid-summery weather with some hot temperatures, humidity and some thunderstorms over the region, as we move into the few weeks of July.

A trough will dig into the Northern Rockies and Plains during the middle of this week. This will cause ridge build over Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region late this week and into this weekend. This will much warmer and humid airmass to return to region. Temperatures with more southwest flow and enough sunshine could exceed 90°F degrees in many spots by Friday and Saturday. Some afternoon sea-breezes each day will likely some coastal sections a little cooler. But it still be uncomfortably humid.

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