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Unseasonably cold conditions continue through Friday
Good evening!
Unseasonably cold and relatively calm conditions have dominated through the first half of this week. Temperatures look to rise only a few degrees through Friday before we have to watch for our next rain threat later on this weekend!
Snow exits, much warmer conditions ahead by Sunday!
Good evening!
Light to occasionally moderate snow has begun to gradually change over to light freezing rain and drizzle across portions of the New York City metro area this evening.
Totals from this event were quite light (1-3″) as expected, with the heaviest snows (6-10″) staying well to the south and west over portions of Maryland and Pennsylvania. High pressure has begun to shift off the New England coast during the past few hours, allowing surface winds to change over to more to the east/southeast. Additionally, warmer air in the mid levels of the atmosphere is now overspreading the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, further helping to flip any precipitation over to a messy mix of freezing rain and plain rain.
A mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain can be expected throughout the rest of this evening and into the overnight hours before precipitation finally moves out during the very early morning hours of Thursday. A glaze to one tenth of an inch of ice is possible through the overnight hours, especially across elevated locations of Northwestern New Jersey and Southern New York, so please use caution when traveling this evening!
This evening’s HRRR model showing an extended period of freezing rain across the interior later tonight
Calm conditions and above normal temps to end the workweek
Conditions will begin to improve quite a bit tomorrow morning (Thursday) as low pressure off to our northeast continues to move quickly away from the region. Very dry air in the mid levels of the atmosphere will punch into the Northeast during the morning/early afternoon hours, allowing for mostly sunny skies. Temperatures tomorrow will also be improving significantly as relatively warm mid level temperatures remain in place. The combination of clearing skies and relatively warm air just above the surface should allow highs tomorrow to reach into the upper 40’s with lower 50’s likely across much of the area! This will cause any remaining snow/ice to rapidly melt- erasing any trace of today’s storm.
Temperatures finally drop to seasonable levels Thursday night as northwesterly flow develops. Mainly clear skies are expected, with lows falling into the upper 20’s and lower 30’s across the entire New York metro area.
Friday will be another calm day, but not quite as warm as Thursday. High pressure will be working its way into the Ohio Valley/Northeast during the day, so mostly sunny skies are expected for the entire area. Highs will likely reach back into the lower to middle 40’s, which will still be 5-10F above normal for this time of year. High pressure will be overhead during the evening and overnight hours, ensuring another calm and cold night. Lows will drop back down to the middle to upper 20’s, with locations in and around the city likely hovering right around the freezing mark.
NWS forecasted high temperatures for Thursday. Widespread 50’s will be likely across the area by the afternoon hours!
Another large storm system to cut off to our west this Weekend
Another potent and energetic Pacific shortwave trough will be moving through the Southern Plains by Saturday, leading to a brief period of increased ridging over the East Coast. This system will spawn an area of low pressure over Oklahoma/Kansas by the afternoon hours of Saturday that will cause yet another stream of warm/moist air from the Gulf of Mexico to overspread the Southeast. While high pressure over the Northeast should keep our area mostly dry during the day on Saturday, another round of very heavy rain and potentially some severe weather will march across the Southeastern states. Surface low pressure will then cut up through the Midwest Saturday night/Sunday morning, leading to the same area of mild & moist conditions to engulf the Northeast.
Deep mid level southerly flow on Sunday will provide another round of much-above normal temperatures for the vast majority of the Northeast, with highs likely pushing well into the 50’s–and possibly even the 60’s for locations to the south! Periods of moderate to occasionally heavy rain will be possible as the surface low strengthens off to our west and a warm front passes through Sunday morning. This area of low pressure should quickly push into Southern Canada by Sunday evening, quickly bringing an end to any additional unsettled conditions.
Early indications are that quick zonal (west to east) flow will set up early next week, likely leading to a more stable and cold pattern through midweek.
This evening’s GFS model showing surface temperatures 15-20 degrees above normal across much of the East Coast on Sunday morning
We’ll have an update on Friday for this weekend’s storm system as well as a look at what’s ahead for next week!
Have a great night!
-Steve Copertino
Snow and sleet to cause travel concerns Tuesday
Good evening!
Today has been a rather dull and cold day across much of our area as an upper level disturbance off to our west continues to produce widespread overcast. Some light to moderate areas of snow have been reported over southern portions of New Jersey today. The main story for our area continues to be a more impactful period of moderate to heavy snow that will gradually work its way into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast by early Tuesday morning.