Good evening! Hurricane Irma remains an extremely powerful Category 5 storm, and is now moving just north of Hispaniola. It will continue to move west-northwest into the Turks and Caicos Islands later tonight. Irma is then expected to track somewhere between the Southern Bahamas and Eastern Cuba on Friday. There are still some uncertainties in its track over the next 24 hours, but we are starting to gain a model consensus on the systems eventual future. Chances are growing that Irma will be a major hurricane impacting South Florida on Sunday. Major impacts from Irma are also likely for other parts of Florida and the Southeast US.
Irma has continued to remain resilient over the last couple of days, despite encountering some mid-level shear, as well as having its inflow being disrupted by the mountains of Hispaniola. Irma has not weakened very much, as winds only have decreased from 185 mph to 175mph and pressure has remained around 921mb. Irma has remained at Category 5 strength for the longest period of time ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin. Eyewall replacement cycles that seemed to begin have just resulted in Irma’s inner eyewall merging with the outer eyewall. This is instead of the inner eyewall collapsing and the outer eyewall contracting again, which is more typical and would result in more weakening, during the cycle.
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