A large and impactful storm system is expected in the Central and Eastern US during the days leading up to Christmas. Widespread travel disruptions are a growing concern. In NYC, the main impacts from the system are expected to be rain and wind. Winter weather is possible in the interior Northeast.
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We have a bit of good news and bad news for you. First, the bad news is that after two banner days, rainy and cooler conditions will affect the entire area tomorrow. The good news is that this system should be out of our hair by Friday, with much warmer conditions in store for this weekend! We’ll break it all down for you below!
Today has been quite a pleasant way to end the workweek across the entire New York City metro area as highs rose into the middle 50’s to lower 60’s! These mild conditions will be short-lived as we turn our attention to two areas of low pressure that have the potential to bring some wintry weather to the area.
Last night was a rather unusual night for the beginning of January as showers and even some isolated thunderstorms impacted portions of the Northeast with heavy rainfall and small hail. After these storms passed late last night and into the early morning hours of today, a strong cold front marched across the entire New York metro area, ushering in colder temperatures and gusty winds behind the front.
With some residual mid level moisture and patches of leftover energy from the previous system, the majority of the forecast area has stayed mostly cloudy for much of the day today. Highs were certainly cooler than yesterday, with the majority of the area seeing readings top-off in the lower to middle 40’s, with upper 30’s over locations off to the north and west of the city.
Due to the aforementioned residual moisture and energy situated over the area, we have also seen some spotty snow showers moving across portions of Pennsylvania and New York State. While the majority of these snow showers have been unsuccessful in reaching the immediate NYC area, there is a low chance that one or two of these could eventually find themselves over portions of Northern New Jersey as we head later into the evening hours. If this does occur, they will only be capable of a brief period of light snow with no accumulations expected anywhere across the forecast area.
Otherwise, tonight will feel rather cold-with most of the area seeing lows drop back into the middle to upper 20’s, with lower 30’s closer to the coast. Breezy conditions will also last into the overnight hours tonight, with gusts up to 30-35 mph possible. This will allow for wind chills to get into the lower 20’s to upper teens, so remember to bundle up if you plan on being outside tonight!
This evenings latest high-resolution regional radar and surface temperatures, showing some snow showers over portions of the Northeast
As we head into Thursday morning, a large area of low pressure will be centered over portions of coastal Southeastern Canada which will continue to create a rather tight pressure gradient between this system and an area of high pressure near the Great Lakes region. This will continue to cause gusty winds and rather cold conditions to start the day for the morning commute. Though the main area of energy associated with the large upper-level low off to our north and east will be moving away, there is still a slight chance that portions of Southern New York State as well as Northwestern New Jersey could see a light snow shower or two.
Strong northwesterly flow and drying mid-levels should allow for gradually clearing skies tomorrow afternoon with continued breezy conditions. Highs will be in the upper 20’s to lower 30’s for the majority of the area, but the occasionally breezy conditions should make temperatures feel five or so degrees colder. These breezy and calm conditions will last into the evening and overnight hours as the atmosphere continues to dry out and the area of high pressure over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley moves towards our area. This will lead to good/excellent conditions for radiational cooling to take place tomorrow night, with lows likely dropping well into the 20’s and possibly even teens across portions of Northern New Jersey. While winds will continue to decrease overnight in strength, they will be able to cause wind chills to fall into the lower to middle teens!
Friday will be a quiet and cold day across the entire Northeast as high pressure finally builds into the region, allowing winds to calm and sunny skies to dominate the day. The same cold airmass will be in place during the entire day, so expect highs to only get into the middle to upper 20’s with low 30’s for locations near the coast. (These temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year) Calm and cold conditions will last into the evening and overnight hours as radiational cooling sets up once again, but this time we are likely to see temperatures fall well into the teens across much of the metro area-making for a much more “seasonable” cold January night!
High resolution NAM model showing cold temperatures dominating the rest of this week with teens and 20’s for the overnight hours
Over the past couple of days we have been monitoring the potential for another storm system to impact portions of the East Coast this weekend. Unlike the past few weeks, we will have enough cold air in place so that any precipitation that falls will likely be in the form of snow.
However, there have been some major questions about the overall evolution of this storm once it reaches the Midwestern states on Saturday afternoon. Initially the models were hinting that the main shortwave trough located over the Plains/Midwest would eventually interact and “phase” with another incoming system over southern Canada, which would have produced a widespread area of heavy snow over the East.
Since our last update, the models now largely agree that this scenario is highly-unlikely and the two systems will indeed remain separate, with the system over Canada likely acting to force the system over the Midwest to our south, sparing the Northeast from any major impacts. While the Northeast and portions of the Mid-Atlantic will likely not see any significant impacts, the system moving through the Midwest on Saturday could still produce a light snow event for our area late Saturday night and into Sunday morning. While its still too early to talk exact details, we will likely have to monitor this potential snow event over the next few days.
This afternoon’s European model showing an area of light snow moving through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Sunday morning
There is still a good amount of time left before all of the details regarding this potential storm are ironed-out, so check back soon as more information becomes available!
Have a great night!
Steve Copertino